“With China's support, the pressure on Russia will definitely be less, especially for financial linkages. This is especially true as Russia is isolated and China is the only country with meaningful economic size that can offer help. The real tricky moment will come if the US expands the scope and enforces secondary sanctions, which will become a tug-of-war between China's support for Russia versus whether the West is willing to pressure or put secondary sanctions on China given its large role in global trade. The pressure campaign could prompt ostracised countries to seek to reduce dollar dependency and establish more cross-border payment systems. This can hurt the effectiveness of sanctions over time, but a complete replacement of the dollar remains very unlikely.”
28 Feb 2022
7
5
Read More
