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  • Emmanuel Macron
    Emmanuel Macron “If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request [of sending ground troops to Ukraine], which is not the case today, we would legitimately have to ask ourselves this question.” 3 hours ago
  • David Cameron
    David Cameron “We will give three billion pounds every year for as long as is necessary. We've just really emptied all we can in terms of giving equipment. The aid package was the largest from the UK so far. Some of that (equipment) is actually arriving in Ukraine today, while I'm here. Ukraine has a right to use the weapons provided by London to strike targets inside Russia, and that it was up to Kyiv whether to do so. Ukraine has that right. Just as Russia is striking inside Ukraine, you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it's defending itself.” 3 hours ago
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Russia invasion of Ukraine - Putin's plan

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to the Context Russia invasion of Ukraine - Putin's plan.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

Avril Haines
Avril Haines

“We assess President Putin is preparing for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond the Donbas. We assess that Putin's strategic goals have probably not changed, suggesting he regards the decision in late March to refocus Russian forces on the Donbas is only a temporary shift to regain the initiative after the Russian military's failure to capture Kyiv.”

author
US Director of National Intelligence
10 May 2022 6 2
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William Burns
William Burns

“I think he's [Vladimir Putin] in a frame of mind in which he doesn't believe he can afford to lose. I think he's convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress. We don't see, as an intelligence community, practical evidence at this point of Russian planning for the deployment or even potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. Given the kind of sabre-rattling that … we've heard from the Russian leadership, we can't take lightly those possibilities. So we stay very sharply focused as an intelligence service … on those possibilities at a moment when the stakes are very high for Russia.”

author
CIA Director
07 May 2022 3 3
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Mathieu Boulege
Mathieu Boulege

“Putin will not admit defeat. The Kremlin will not compromise. Right before May 9 there will be a big moment for Putin to say, mission accomplished, this is my version of history. This is my legacy. It needs to be presented as a mission accomplished. Forget about taking over Kyiv. We've flattened Mariupol, we've liberated more parts of Donbas. Maybe they will announce a republic in Kherson.”

author
Senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London
06 May 2022 6 3
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Lawrence Freedman
Lawrence Freedman

“There are some suggestions that what [Putin] is trying to do now is take out as much infrastructure and civil society as [possible] and that he has this view that if [he] can't have Ukraine, then Ukrainians can't have it either. That's [the only explanation] that adds up because otherwise the way this war is being conducted is grotesquely at odds with what the [Kremlin] says its objectives are.”

author
Emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London and author of The Future Of War
11 Apr 2022 6 1
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Wyn Rees
Wyn Rees

“Putin is pursuing a two-pronged approach. On the one side, he is entering into negotiations, while on the other, he is increasing the military pressure. It was widely reported that Russian special forces and former military individuals had been inserted into Ukraine to disrupt the defence and target leaders in Ukraine.”

author
Professor of international security at the University of Nottingham
23 Mar 2022 4 1
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Ibrahim Kalin
Ibrahim Kalin

“President Putin thinks the positions on the Donbas and Crimea are not close enough to meet President Zelenskyy. What we need is a strategic-level meeting between the two leaders. There seems to be growing consensus … We are hoping there will be more convergence on these issues, and this meeting will take place sooner than later, because we all want this war to come to an end.”

author
Turkish Presidential Spokesman
19 Mar 2022 7 2
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Dmitry Peskov
Dmitry Peskov

“Putin gave orders to hold back on any immediate assault on large cities because the civilian losses would be large. The Defense Ministry does not rule out the possibility of putting large cities, which are already almost fully encircled, under its full control. Exceptions would be made for areas used for humanitarian evacuations. U.S. and EU leaders it seems are forcing Russia towards an assault of large Ukrainian cities to hold our country responsible for civilian deaths.”

author
Kremlin spokesman
14 Mar 2022 6 3
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Andrei Kolesnikov
Andrei Kolesnikov

“In my opinion, our decision-makers not only did not have expertise on Ukraine (as well as on the former space of the U.S.S.R. as a whole), but they did NOT WANT to have [it]. They are in the captivity of their own understanding of reality and ideological points like Russky Mir, or the Russian World.”

author
Political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center
11 Mar 2022 5 3
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Aleksandr Cherkasov
Aleksandr Cherkasov

“If we talk about [parallels], then Putin started the same way [in Chechnya] as he has [in Ukraine and] continues as we move to a new stage [of the conflict]. It [also] began with a war that was originally called a 'counterterrorist operation' and was not described as an armed conflict.”

author
Memorial International Director
04 Mar 2022 4 2
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Graeme Gill
Graeme Gill

“If Kyiv is captured, the Russians would probably install at least an interim administration. However, given the low likelihood of this being widely accepted among the Ukrainian population, Putin would have more success if the current government, perhaps stripped of some members but continuing to be led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was retained in office and able to negotiate with the Russians. The institutional structure would be likely to remain in place, although strong consideration would be likely to be given to introducing a federal arrangement of some sort to provide a degree of autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk. Nonetheless, even if Russia could establish some form of dialogue and agreement in Kyiv, it faces encumbrances. Such negotiations would be likely seen as taking place under duress, and therefore any outcome may not stick. There are no easy options for Putin, and it would certainly not be easy for any interim government installed by force of Russian arms.”

author
Professor emeritus of government and international relations at the University of Sydney
28 Feb 2022 8 3
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Cristian Nitoiu
Cristian Nitoiu

“The long-term goals of Russia following the end of the Cold War have been to recover the great power status of Soviet Union, to be seen as equal by the West and to be able to influence political developments in its smaller neighbours like Ukraine, Moldova or Kazakhstan. However, Ukraine has been incorporating itself into the Western orbit of influence, and thus going against Putin's interests. Accordingly, placing a Russian-friendly government in Kyiv is most likely the main objective of the Kremlin's military intervention.”

author
Lecturer in Diplomacy and International Governance at Loughborough University London
28 Feb 2022 6 3
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Maksim Trudolyubov
Maksim Trudolyubov

“He tried to conduct a short operation in the hope that the Ukrainian side would collapse - from the top leadership to privates on the battlefield. It's possible that the madman was seriously counting on holding the psychological and moral advantage. Putin refused to understand that this entire 'advantage' was dreamed up by his own television channels. For many years, his television and press have had one customer and one real viewer - himself. He has been poisoned by his own lies.”

author
Editor in chief of the Russia File a blog published by the U.S.-based Kennan Institute think tank
27 Feb 2022 4 3
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