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“China probably saw in Ukraine that you don't achieve quick, decisive victories with underwhelming force. Our sense is that it [Russia's five-month-old war in Ukraine] probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it. I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you've got to amass overwhelming force if you're going to contemplate that in the future.”
20 Jul 2022
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