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North Korea missile test and nuclear test - Considerations

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to the Context North Korea missile test and nuclear test - Considerations.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

Chun In-bum
Chun In-bum

“More missile launches with variations in style and scope should be expected, with even a nuclear test. More acts of intimidation from North Korea should not come as a surprise.”

author
Retired South Korean army general
14 Mar 2023 1 3
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Cheong Seong-chang
Cheong Seong-chang

“Compared with Kim's previous New Year's remarks, which highlighted the country's economic growth, he emphasized strengthening the military and nuclear weapons this time. A nuclear test is expected soon to back up his message. The prediction that North Korea would push ahead with a nuclear test before the midterms in the United States in November was wrong, perhaps because it ignored the North's politics. If the past is any guide, North Korea conducted nuclear tests on or just prior to politically meaningful days. If the North does not conduct a test in January or February, it could be delayed to July 27, the anniversary of the Korean War armistice signing, which is called 'the Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War' in North Korea, or later.”

author
Director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute
02 Jan 2023 2 3
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Anthony Ruggiero
Anthony Ruggiero

“Targeting senior officials inside North Korea responsible for WMD and missile activities and working with South Korea and Japan are important, but it is an inadequate and symbolic response to 60+ missile tests, including 8 ICBM tests. The Biden administration should sanction Pyongyang's revenue and force Kim Jong Un to make difficult decisions about his strategic priorities.”

author
Senior director of Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program and a senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies
02 Dec 2022 4 2
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Wendy Sherman
Wendy Sherman

“Any nuclear test would be in complete violation of UN Security Council resolutions [and] there would be a swift and forceful response to such a test. The entire world will respond in a strong and clear manner. We are prepared.”

author
US Deputy Secretary of State
07 Jun 2022 3 5
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Kim Sung
Kim Sung

“U.S. intelligence believes that the North is preparing its Punggye-ri test site for what would be its seventh nuclear test. This assessment is consistent with the DPRK's own recent public statements. We are preparing for all contingencies in close coordination with our Japanese and ROK allies. Furthermore, we are prepared to make both short and longer term adjustments to our military posture as appropriate in responding to any DPRK provocation and as necessary to strengthen both defense and deterrence to protect our allies in the region.”

author
US Special Representative for North Korea
03 Jun 2022 6 4
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Leif-Eric Easley
Leif-Eric Easley

“Instead of accepting invitations to dialogue, the Kim regime appears to be preparing a tactical nuclear warhead test. The timing will depend most on when the underground tunnels and modified device technology are ready. A seventh nuclear test would be the first since September 2017 and raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula, increasing dangers of miscalculation and miscommunication between the Kim regime and the incoming Yoon administration.”

author
Professor at Ewha University in Seoul
07 May 2022 6 5
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Robert Kelly
Robert Kelly

“I think the idea is to signal to the South Koreans, 'we're still here, you must take us seriously'. The North Koreans have a long history of doing this. It's a mix of signalling and bullying.”

author
International relations expert at Pusan National University in Busan, South Korea
07 May 2022 1 3
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Leif-Eric Easley
Leif-Eric Easley

“The Kim regime needs more sources of national pride and legitimacy than military parades. So the public commemorations around its founder's birthday tried to portray an economy that is not only resilient but growing, and a society that is not only united but also modern and happy. But this does not represent a shift away from North Korea's military build-up. Kim Jong-un's stated goal of deploying tactical nuclear weapons, Kim Yo-jong's recent threats toward Seoul, and satellite imagery of tunneling activity at Punggye-ri all point to an upcoming nuclear test. Additional missile launches are also expected for honing weapons delivery systems.”

author
Professor at Ewha University in Seoul
16 Apr 2022 6 5
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Moon Sung-mook
Moon Sung-mook

“In terms of developing new weapons, there is no such concept of 100-percent completion in development, which means upgrades and tests of the weapons should be followed. … As North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un has said that the country is developing many different weapons, including tactical nuclear weapons and a nuclear-powered submarine, the country is expected to continue missile and other weapons tests. North Korea is expected to stick to its existing stance that they will keep going on their way in developing weapons for the country's self-defense, and their weapons tests are not aimed at provoking other neighboring countries.”

author
Senior researcher at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy
06 Jan 2022 4 3
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Park Won-gon
Park Won-gon

“North Korea cares about China's response, but Beijing did not really criticize Pyongyang's latest missile test. This is like North Korea getting a 'green light' to continue its weapons tests. Unless North Korea conducts a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile or stages missile tests too often in a short period of time, China is likely to stand back and watch. North Korea is likely to continue its missile tests regardless of the results of the South's next presidential election, as they see it as an independent issue. The North's negotiation strategy toward the South's new administration would be presented in another way. If the candidate of the ruling liberal bloc is elected, North Korea is likely to insist on its previous stance that the South and the U.S. should first withdraw what it calls hostile policies against it. If the candidate of the conservative bloc becomes the next president, it is expected to stage a certain level of provocation to see the response of the new administration.”

author
Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University
06 Jan 2022 9 4
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Yang Moo-jin
Yang Moo-jin

“If Seoul sends messages to the North, it will likely be about requesting Pyongyang to respond to Seoul's calls through communication lines firs. And then, it will urge the North to implement the Comprehensive Military Agreement and to activate the Inter-Korean Joint Military Committee. Though there were previous military provocations around the Foundation Day [September 9th, North Korea's regime foundation], chances are slim for the North to jump to a nuclear test right away, given the current stalemate in inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea circumstances. Also, there are no signs of the Kim [Kim Jong-un] regime preparing a massive military parade right now. If there's any provocation, a test fire of new short-range ballistic missiles might be possible.”

author
Professor at the University of North Korean Studies and the vice chairman of the Korean Association of North Korean Studies
01 Sep 2021 4 3
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