Park Won-gon Page | IPSE DIXIT

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Kaja Kallas POLITICIAN
Moussa Faki Mahamat CHAIRPERSON, POLITICIAN
Adrian Zenz ACADEMIC, ANALYST, RESEARCHER
Matthew Kroenig POLITICAL SCIENTIST
Andriy Yermak POLITICIAN
Vitaly Savelyev POLITICIAN
Oleksandr Korniyenko POLITICIAN
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Amichai Chikli “The US is not projecting strength under [Biden's] leadership, and it's harming Israel and other countries. He said 'Don't' at the start of the war - to Hezbollah, as well as Iran. We saw the result. If I were an American citizen with the right to vote, I'd vote for Trump and Republicans.” 16 hours ago
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Volodymyr Zelenskiy

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Amichai Chikli Politician

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IPSEs IN THE LAST 24H

Amichai Chikli “The US is not projecting strength under [Biden's] leadership, and it's harming Israel and other countries. He said 'Don't' at the start of the war - to Hezbollah, as well as Iran. We saw the result. If I were an American citizen with the right to vote, I'd vote for Trump and Republicans.” 16 hours ago
Nikolay Mitrokhin “The return of Crimea is absolutely unrealistic. Before the failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive last summer there was a chance to return the annexed peninsula had Ukrainian forces reached the Azov Sea and started shelling the Crimean bridge and the Kerch Strait that divides the Azov and Black seas. But now it's hardly real to penetrate Russian defence farther than the takeover of the Kinburn peninsula.” 16 hours ago

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Park Won-gon

Professor

Park Won-gon

Inserted 1 year ago

“Given that South Korea and the United States are conducting a combined air exercise, regarded as the strongest deterrence against the North Korean threats, the missile launch during the ongoing drills indicates the North has strong confidence in its nuclear capability. Since Sept. 25, North Korea has kept firing missiles ― even during China's important party congress. In addition, the North had staged military provocations in consideration of South Korea's domestic situation to some extent, but the missile launch during the South's mourning period of the Itaewon crowd crush, means that it will only focus on gaining recognition as a nuclear weapons state without taking anything into consideration before holding negotiations with the U.S. on the nuclear issue. To this end, North Korea is widely expected to ratchet up tensions further on the peninsula.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

02 Nov 2022 6 5

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 1 year ago

“There is no way that the U.S. government will revise the law because Biden has touted it as one of his biggest achievements in office ahead of the midterm elections in November. In addition, the U.S. cannot give an exception only to Korea, while its other close allies are subject to the IRA [Inflation Reduction Act].”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

28 Sep 2022 5 2

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 1 year ago

“Unlike Moon Jae-in, whose focus was pretty much on inter-Korean relations and within the Korean Peninsula, Yoon pursues values-based internationalism and seeks to deal with the North Korea issue under that frame.”

Political scientist at Ewha Womans University in Seoul

18 Sep 2022 4 3

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 1 year ago

“While the U.S.-China rivalry has been showing signs of turning into a zero-sum game, deciding whether to join the chip alliance is a really complicated issue even for the Yoon administration, which supports the U.S.' Indo-Pacific strategy against China while seeking to build a bilateral relationship of mutual respect with Beijing. The previous strategic ambiguity between the U.S. and China meant we would not suffer a loss or pay a cost while benefiting from them, but that era has ended and now we are facing a situation in which that we have to put up with a loss or shoulder expenses. Should Korea not join the alliance, Japan would try to fill our absence, and in consideration of that, we will be in a position to accept the U.S. invitation.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

22 Jul 2022 5 4

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“It seems that Yoon [Yoon Suk-yeol] is carrying out what he said during the presidential campaign - rebuilding the South Korea-U.S. alliance. There is no doubt that we should have the alliance as the basis of our diplomacy, but it is also true that we cannot rule out China given the intertwined relationship with North Korea and other neighboring countries. The current situation forces South Korea to choose a side between the U.S. and China, but we also have to think about risks associated with uncertainty surrounding the U.S. side.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

08 Apr 2022 6 5

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“Frankly, there are not many options left for the President-elect, President Moon and even the U.S. but to turn to a hawkish stance. Since the North announced its intention to stick to its own nuclear development plan earlier this year, it did not hesitate in ending the moratorium, meaning the regime will likely pursue its goal of producing various nuclear weapons regardless of outside pressure. The only way that looks effective is joining other countries to impose stronger sanctions on North Korea, but this also relates to the North's relations with China.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

25 Mar 2022 6 5

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“North Korea cares about China's response, but Beijing did not really criticize Pyongyang's latest missile test. This is like North Korea getting a 'green light' to continue its weapons tests. Unless North Korea conducts a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile or stages missile tests too often in a short period of time, China is likely to stand back and watch. North Korea is likely to continue its missile tests regardless of the results of the South's next presidential election, as they see it as an independent issue. The North's negotiation strategy toward the South's new administration would be presented in another way. If the candidate of the ruling liberal bloc is elected, North Korea is likely to insist on its previous stance that the South and the U.S. should first withdraw what it calls hostile policies against it. If the candidate of the conservative bloc becomes the next president, it is expected to stage a certain level of provocation to see the response of the new administration.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

06 Jan 2022 9 4

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“The nuclear weapons program, the economy and the stability of the regime are all interconnected. If the nuclear issue doesn't get resolved, the economy doesn't get better, and that opens the possibility of disquiet and confusion in North Korea's society.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

14 Dec 2021 1 3

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“The invitation rather seems to be China's complaint to South Korea because Beijing has been sidelined from talks on the declaration so far. In their meeting, China's top priority is assumed to be stressing that Beijing should be included as a major interested party in the discussions for the end-of-war declaration, given the country's efforts to strengthen its presence to counter U.S. influence. If China participates in the end-of-war declaration discussions, however, the progress is anticipated to be more complex than it is now, because China also has to weigh between contradicting outcomes from different choices. The ultimate goal of the end-of-war declaration is signing a peace treaty and the normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations, which China may not want, considering the current backdrop of fierce U.S.-China competition. On the other hand, there is no reason for China to oppose a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula or the North's denuclearization. Also, it will be complicated for China to choose whether to accept the anticipated clause stating that the declaration does not affect the armistice status between the two Koreas.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

01 Dec 2021 5 4

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“The U.S. could boycott the Beijing Games alone, but it is more likely that the U.S. would call for its allies, including Korea, Japan and European countries, to also join the boycott. This could be a burden for the Moon administration as the Beijing Olympics is the administration's one last hope at diplomacy. The U.S. diplomatic boycott restricts President Moon's possible actions, while China would try to bring key allies of the U.S. such as South Korea to Beijing. If China invites Kim Jong-un, President Moon [Moon Jae-in] must go to Beijing.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

19 Nov 2021 8 4

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“As Kritenbrink [Daniel Kritenbrink] is a key figure in the Biden administration regarding regional matters, his meetings with the presidential candidates, with Moon [Moon Jae-in] still remaining in office, indicates the U.S. policy direction is to prepare for the next South Korean government, while seeking to maintain the status quo with the current administration. The assistant secretary is a China expert and the Biden administration's priority is to curb China's global influence, but the current South Korean government is not actively engaged in the U.S.-led anti-China alliance. In that sense, the meetings between Kritenbrink and the presidential candidates [Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl] are delivering a message that the U.S. cares about who will be in power here during its campaign against Beijing.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

09 Nov 2021 8 3

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“It is partly because the Biden administration is focusing on domestic issues in its first year, with less attention being paid to foreign policy. Previous assistant secretaries of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs used to be those well aware of North Korea issues, but Biden's pick for the post, Daniel Joseph Kritenbrink, is a China expert, so the ambassador to South Korea this time will have a larger role than before in dealing with the North Korea nuclear issue. There have been some rumors since April, but it is still unpredictable with no visible candidate as of the moment. It could be a signal that South Korea has fallen behind in diplomatic priority.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

07 Nov 2021 5 4

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“The President [Moon Jae-in] did what is best for the national interest, but it certainly may not be the best for Samsung Electronics' business interests. Samsung will face greater challenges in terms of surviving on its own.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

01 Nov 2021 3 2

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“The North Korean leader's speech boiled down to his ambition to gain the country recognition as a nuclear-armed state. Given that North Korea stresses the double standards, Kim's [Kim Jong-un] speech means South Korea and the U.S. should not take issue with Pyongyang's weapons development as it is part of the North's self-defense.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

12 Oct 2021 4 5

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“The Kishida government will definitely say the withdrawal of the court order [Supreme Court ruling opened the way for assets in Korea belonging to the Japanese companies to be seized] on asset seizure must be preceded before dropping trade curbs against Korea on any path toward reconciliation. Unfortunately, this won't happen under the Moon government considering it has been as hawkish as Abe's [Shinzo Abe].”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

04 Oct 2021 4 2

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“The U.S. appears to be taking advantage of its nuclear talks with South Korea as a means to ensure cooperation - in other words, to have Seoul on Washington's side. South Korea is seen by some as the weakest link among the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo trilateral security structure, so the Biden administration is trying to keep the country in check in its policy toward North Korea. In that sense, the two sides have held multi-level talks.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

12 Sep 2021 4 6

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“Considering the North's political system, where the supreme leader decides everything, Kim's [Kim Jong-un] health is an extremely important security matter. It's likely there were internal concerns that he was overweight, and it would have been important for Kim to reduce those concerns and present himself as a young and healthy leader who's capable of doing things.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

11 Sep 2021 1 3

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“Beijing's biggest concern is the Biden administration's hardline policy toward China. … Withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan, the U.S. said it will instead put more focus on the security situation in Northeast Asia, referring to threats posed by China, Russia and North Korea. When the main target of the U.S. is China, China wants to break the weakest link in the U.S. alliance network in the region, meaning South Korea.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

07 Sep 2021 7 4

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“Both the nuclear reactor and preparation for a military parade are North Korea's way of showing off to gain an upper hand in future negotiations with the U.S. They are safe yet effective measures to pressure the U.S.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

03 Sep 2021 4 3

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Park Won-gon

Inserted 2 years ago

“With the report [North Korea restarting nuclear reactor in Yongbyon] coming to light, South Korea and the U.S. are likely to see their bandwidth limited in their move to restart the Korean Peninsula peace process. Given the fact that the North Korean regime is set to continue to pressure the U.S. in the mid- to long-term, it remains to be seen how the allies will respond.”

Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University

30 Aug 2021 4 4

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01

Monday

Nov, 2021

The President [Moon Jae-in] did what is best for the national interest, but it certainly may not be the best for Samsung Electronics' business interests. Samsung will face greater challenges in terms of surviving on its own.

07

Sunday

Mar, 2021

Despite the Joe Biden administration's entry restriction on foreign government officials due to COVID-19, the two sides held a face-to-face meeting, indicating that they are close to a deal. In addition, Blinken is planning to visit Korea in the middle of this month, so he is likely to sign the new SMA [Special Measures Agreement] while in Seoul. This can have the symbolic meaning of repairing the alliance with South Korea, which was severely damaged by the SMA negotiations under the Trump administration.

19

Friday

Nov, 2021

The U.S. could boycott the Beijing Games alone, but it is more likely that the U.S. would call for its allies, including Korea, Japan and European countries, to also join the boycott. This could be a burden for the Moon administration as the Beijing Olympics is the administration's one last hope at diplomacy. The U.S. diplomatic boycott restricts President Moon's possible actions, while China would try to bring key allies of the U.S. such as South Korea to Beijing. If China invites Kim Jong-un, President Moon [Moon Jae-in] must go to Beijing.