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China - Taiwan potential conflict - Considerations

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to the Context China - Taiwan potential conflict - Considerations.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

Timothy Heath
Timothy Heath

“If Taiwan can build these submarines - and admittedly that is a big if given the island's complete inexperience in manufacturing advanced submarines - these could be fairly advanced and effective. Taiwan's determination to build submarines and invest in its own defense makes it easier for US officials to politically justify helping an island under attack from China since Taiwan is doing what it can to defend itself. By contrast, a Taiwan that did nothing to improve its self-defense capabilities would make it far harder politically for US officials to justify an intervention. Absent any US intervention it is very probable that China would eventually find a way to suppress most or all of the subs.”

Cnn

author
Senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corp think tank in Washington
20 Dec 2020 4 6
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Carl Schuster
Carl Schuster

“Every (large troop carrier) hit by a torpedo, particularly a modern one like the US Mark 48, removes a battalion of troops from the invasion force. So, no one is going to send those amphibious assault ships into the Strait until they are confident it is clear of submarines.”

Cnn

author
Former US Navy captain who is now an analyst at Hawaii Pacific University
20 Dec 2020 3 2
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Owen Cote
Owen Cote

“Chinese ASW [anti-submarine warfare] capabilities are weak and the acoustic conditions in these very shallow, noisy waters are very difficult even for advanced ASW capabilities like those deployed by Japan and the US.”

Cnn

author
Associate director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an expert on submarine warfare
20 Dec 2020 3 3
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Grant Newsham
Grant Newsham

“The military [of Taiwan] has been whittled down. It is almost as if fighting to defend the country is somebody else’s responsibility.”

author
Retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel who spent most of 2019 in Taiwan evaluating its defense capability in a Taiwan government-funded research project
10 Dec 2020 1 2
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Zhang Hua
Zhang Hua

“Under the current circumstances, it would be more appropriate to describe the cross-Straits relations as 'hostile' rather than in a state of 'quasi-war'. Only when the mainland has no other options but to impose economic sanctions and blockade Taiwan, can we say that the situation is one of 'quasi-war'. Whether there will be a 'quasi-war' or a real war depends on what provocations the Taiwan authorities and the US make. For instance, if the US military trains Taiwan's armed forces, or the US sends its warplanes to fly over the island of Taiwan, the mainland is bound to counter-act.”

author
Assistant research fellow at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
27 Oct 2020 4 4
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Chang Ya-chung
Chang Ya-chung

“Although US politicians always said the arms sales can reinforce the stability of the region, the fact is that more US arms sales will bring less mutual trust between Taiwan and the mainland, and incur more military drills by the PLA, and the mainland will increase its inputs to further enlarge its military advantage over the island. If the Chinese mainland determines that the US arms sales can make Taiwan a 'porcupine' that could effectively increase the difficulties for the reunification, the mainland might decide to solve the problem before Taiwan get fully armed to become a real 'porcupine'. Those arms sales serve the US interest instead of Taiwan's safety, and the increasing arms sales will make the island get closer to the brink of war.”

author
Professor at the Taipei-based "National Taiwan University" and a member of Taiwan's opposition party KMT
26 Oct 2020 4 6
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Ian Easton
Ian Easton

“HIMARS and SLAM-ER are cutting-edge technologically and will diversify and improve the capacity of Taiwan's counter-strike missile force. Invasion operations take a long time and they rely heavily on fixed bases for logistics. They are not short, one-wave affairs. If the ports and airfields in Fujian, Zhejiang and Guangdong can be devastated before the PLA gets established on Taiwan's coast and builds up to the tipping point, it will be much easier for the Taiwanese ground forces to push the invaders back into the sea.”

author
Senior director of the Project 2049 Institute a Virginia-based security research group
26 Oct 2020 8 4
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