China - Taiwan potential conflict - Considerations | Ipse by Context

Collin Koh

Inserted 2 years ago

“If you are going to 'shock and awe' Taiwan with overwhelming force in the initial stages, there might be a lot of civilian casualties. That would make occupation difficult and harden international opposition. The Chinese can't have any illusions now that they will be welcomed as liberators in Taiwan and given supplies and assistance.”

Reuters

Research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

29 Apr 2022 5 2

Philip Davidson

Inserted 2 years ago

“I believe the next six years is going to be a very worrying time for Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, and all of East Asia. I still believe that now. The PLA's training and war plans for conflict scenarios in the Taiwan Strait all aim at stopping the U.S. from intervening and coming to Taiwan's aid. The U.S. and its allies must let China know that it will pay a huge price if it continues its aggression.”

Taiwannews

Former US Navy Admiral

20 Dec 2021 5 4

Wei Dongxu

Inserted 2 years ago

“Taiwan's armed forces are planning to arm the island into being a 'porcupine' - these weapons are spines to the island - and apply asymmetric warfare strategies, for example, using long-range supersonic anti-ship missiles and land-attack cruise missiles to threaten the mainland's coastal regions and warships, or using small Tuo Chiang-class corvettes and other patrol vessels to counter the mainland's large warships in maritime guerilla warfare. The Taiwan military wants to use these weapons to resist reunification by force and impede the PLA's amphibious landing forces.”

Globaltimes

Beijing-based military analyst

24 Nov 2021 6 5

Wen-Ti Sung

Inserted 2 years ago

“We're seeing estimates that put the year at 2027 more or less in terms of China having sufficient conventional superiority for a successful offensive, and if you talk to more military crowd, and they will tell you, maybe it's closer to 2035. But that's the straight line projection number. If you take into account other kinds of hawks of war or the possibility of additional friends and allies (of Taiwan) coming to participate in this situation, then we're probably pushing the timeline back further into the future.”

Aljazeera

Lecturer at Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Programme

23 Nov 2021 3 3

Enoch Wu

Inserted 2 years ago

“We believe that a resilient society and a prepared society would play a big factor in whether the Beijing authority ultimately decides to use force. That means behind that 180,000 to 200,000 strong military, we have a system of reserves and civilians who are trained and equipped to mobilise in case of emergencies. The idea is the civilian population would complement the strength of our regular force. These things are the building blocks to emergency response whether we are dealing with an earthquake or in a worse case scenario a military conflict to have a civilian population that is trained to back up our emergency responders.”

Aljazeera

Taiwanese former banker and special forces soldier and founder of the international non-governmental organization Forward Alliance

23 Nov 2021 6 2

Taipei Times

Inserted 2 years ago

“While some people have questioned whether Washington's actions over the past year have convinced anyone that it would get involved in a Taiwan-China conflict, it is noteworthy that the US' Indo-Pacific strategy hinges upon the integrity of the first island chain. The fall of Taiwan would put US bases in Japan, South Korea and Guam at risk, and would make US allies in the region question its ability and resolve to protect its interests. Therefore, there should be no question that despite its official stance of maintaining 'strategic ambiguity', the US is exceedingly likely to use its military to defend Taiwan. It would also not be alone in doing so, with Australia, Japan and South Korea likely to join, bolstered by the forces in Taiwan itself, which the US has been training and equipping.”

Taipeitimes

Editorial piece by Taipei Times

20 Nov 2021 10 7

Vivian Balakrishnan

Inserted 2 years ago

“The probability of an actual conflict is low between China and Taiwan. It is an issue everyone needs to be concerned with. The real risk is either an accident or a miscalculation. And the more there's engagement, there's talk, there's discussion and there's hopefully a meeting of minds. I think that lowers the risk considerably.”

Taipeitimes

Singaporean Minister of Foreign Affairs

18 Nov 2021 4 2

Robert O'Brien

Inserted 2 years ago

“China will not do anything to jeopardize the Beijing Olympics in February. But Beijing worries that former President Donald Trump or a China hawk like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will win the White House in 2024. That window between the Olympics and the next presidential election could be a window that President Xi believes that he has an opportunity to create mischief when it comes to Taiwan.”

Asia

Former National Security Advisor of the United States

02 Nov 2021 8 3

Qianshao Fu

Inserted 2 years ago

“With Taiwan's military personnel overstretched, how effective can the drill be if a group of burned out people participate? Due to huge disparities in power, Taiwan would not be able to resist the mainland if reunification is to be achieved by force. The drill is just for show.”

Globaltimes

Chinese military aviation expert

18 Oct 2021 2 5

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Inserted 2 years ago

“Even moderate voices in Beijing have been calling for tossing out peaceful reunification. I think the military option is the option now.”

Nytimes

Fellow at Stanford University who specialises in Chinese military and security policy

09 Oct 2021 3 5

Tony Abbott

Inserted 2 years ago

“Its [China] relative power might have peaked with its population aging, its economy slowing and its finances creaking. It is quite possible that Beijing could lash out disastrously quite soon. I don't believe the United States could sit by and watch China swallow up Taiwan. I don't believe Australia should be indifferent to the fate of a fellow democracy of almost 25 million people.”

Reuters

Former Australian prime minister

08 Oct 2021 3 6

Enoch Wu

Inserted 2 years ago

“We have about 160,000 folks in uniform facing a military that now claims to be 2 million strong [China military]. They have a signifiant role in the mission, but behind that we need a layered depth of responders who can really make sure that our defences are as strong as possible, so we can prevent military action.”

Theguardian

Taiwanese former banker and special forces soldier and founder of the international non-governmental organization Forward Alliance

22 Sep 2021 3 5

Zhongping Song

Inserted 2 years ago

“With the Chinese mainland in mind, the island of Taiwan has been developing missiles for a while, but its technologies are not sufficient to develop advanced missiles that are meaningful enough to change the military power balance between the mainland and the island. For the armed forces on the island, this will only draw fire onto themselves, because the missiles will very likely become the first targets the PLA [People's Liberation Army] attacks if a conflict breaks out.”

Globaltimes

Chinese mainland military expert and TV commentator

22 Aug 2021 3 3

You Si-kun

Inserted 2 years ago

“If war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the US might recognize Taiwan, but if there is no conflict, it [recognition] could drag out for a long time. Taiwan has no hope of joining the UN without US support. Acceptance to the UN would be the end of Taiwan's troubles.”

Taipeitimes

Taiwanese politician serving as a member and the president of the Legislative Yuan

25 Jul 2021 5 5

Aso Taro

Inserted 2 years ago

“If a major incident happened [in Taiwan], it would not be strange at all if it touches on a situation threatening survival. If that is the case, Japan and the U.S. must defend Taiwan together.”

Taiwannews

Japanese Deputy Prime Minister

05 Jul 2021 4 4

Mark Milley

Inserted 2 years ago

“There's no reason to do it militarily, and they know that. So, I think the probability is probably low, in the immediate, near-term future. My assessment in terms of capability, I think China has a ways to go to develop the actual, no-kidding capability to conduct military operations to seize through military means the entire island of Taiwan, if they wanted to do that.”

Taipeitimes

US Army general and the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

17 Jun 2021 3 5

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Inserted 2 years ago

“Ultimately, on the question of whether China will use force, Chinese leaders' perceptions of their chances of victory will matter more than their actual chances of victory. For that reason, it is bad news that Chinese analysts and officials increasingly express confidence that the PLA [People's Liberation Army] is well prepared for a military confrontation with the United States over Taiwan. Although Chinese strategists acknowledge the United States' general military superiority, many have come to believe that because China is closer to Taiwan and cares about it more, the local balance of power tips in Beijing's favor.”

Foreignaffairs

Fellow at Stanford University who specialises in Chinese military and security policy

03 Jun 2021 (approx) 5 6

Kurt Campbell

Inserted 2 years ago

“I think it [any conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan] would broaden quickly and it would fundamentally trash the global economy in ways that I don't think anyone can predict.”

Reuters

White House (Biden administration) Indo-Pacific coordinator

04 May 2021 3 3

Peter Dutton

Inserted 3 years ago

“I don't think it should be discounted [conflict involving China over Taiwan]. People need to be realistic about the activity. There is militarisation of bases across the region. Obviously, there is a significant amount of activity and there is an animosity between Taiwan and China. We want to make sure we continue to be a good neighbour in the region, that we work with our partners and with our allies and nobody wants to see conflict between China and Taiwan or anywhere else.”

Reuters

Australia’s Defence Minister

25 Apr 2021 2 3

Gary Sands

Inserted 3 years ago

“Next year, Beijing hopes to attract international visitors to China for the Winter Olympics in February. As I witnessed during the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] went to great lengths to present to a worldwide audience its ability to execute a flawless sporting event. Starting a potentially protracted war over Taiwan ahead of the Winter Olympics would be ill-considered. Lastly, the CCP's National Party Congress is to be held in November next year, and but for an unlikely declaration of independence from Taiwan, Xi [Xi Jinping]would be unwise to risk his appointment to a third term by waging a highly unpredictable war over Taiwan.”

Taipeitimes

Senior analyst at Wikistrat, a crowdsourced consultancy, and a former diplomat with the US Overseas Private Investment Corp.

23 Apr 2021 5 3

Ipse Dixit

Ipse Dixit

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China - Taiwan potential conflict - Considerations

“With Taiwan's military personnel overstretched, how effective can the drill be if a group of burned out people participate? Due to huge disparities in power, Taiwan would not be able to resist the mainland if reunification is to be achieved by force. The drill is just for show.”

“Even moderate voices in Beijing have been calling for tossing out peaceful reunification. I think the military option is the option now.”

“If war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the US might recognize Taiwan, but if there is no conflict, it [recognition] could drag out for a long time. Taiwan has no hope of joining the UN without US support. Acceptance to the UN would be the end of Taiwan's troubles.”

“If a major incident happened [in Taiwan], it would not be strange at all if it touches on a situation threatening survival. If that is the case, Japan and the U.S. must defend Taiwan together.”

“I think it [any conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan] would broaden quickly and it would fundamentally trash the global economy in ways that I don't think anyone can predict.”

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