“Amidst all these challenges, a key question that Xi [Xi Jinping] will be pondering is how long Biden will be in power. For while the Chinese president is tightening his grip with a third term, it is not certain that his U.S. counterpart will even seek a second one, by which time he will be in his early 80s. This is a non-trivial point as Xi would be more likely to engage, substantively, with Biden if he knows the latter will be in power for eight rather four years. Both may ultimately favor a strategic dialogue to try to find a framework, or 'grand bargain,' to renew bilateral relations, but this is the type of initiative that may require more than a single U.S. presidential term to formulate.”
18 Nov 2021
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