“In a personalist dictatorship such as Putin's, no one has any incentive to contradict the leader because their own political and often personal survival depends on his whims. If it is known that the leader favours an attack, who wants to be the one who contradicts him? In this regard, the Russian regime is similar to Saddam Hussein's in Iraq. Fed bad information by his underlings only increases the leader's confidence that he will prevail, thus making it even more likely he will attack. The Russian offensive appears to be stalled. There are many reports of supply and morale problems in Russian units. Because they are largely unable to advance - with a few exceptions, mainly in the south - they have fallen back on siege warfare and indiscriminate attacks on civilians. Historically, it is common for attackers, when unable to win a quick and decisive victory on the battlefield, to become frustrated or desperate and turn their guns on civilians to weaken morale and compel their opponent to surrender through a punishment strategy. Punishing civilians, however, rarely succeeds.”
22 Mar 2022
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