“If Kyiv is captured, the Russians would probably install at least an interim administration. However, given the low likelihood of this being widely accepted among the Ukrainian population, Putin would have more success if the current government, perhaps stripped of some members but continuing to be led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was retained in office and able to negotiate with the Russians. The institutional structure would be likely to remain in place, although strong consideration would be likely to be given to introducing a federal arrangement of some sort to provide a degree of autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk. Nonetheless, even if Russia could establish some form of dialogue and agreement in Kyiv, it faces encumbrances. Such negotiations would be likely seen as taking place under duress, and therefore any outcome may not stick. There are no easy options for Putin, and it would certainly not be easy for any interim government installed by force of Russian arms.”
28 Feb 2022
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