“The Russian economy is overheated but, sadly, very far from crisis. It will be hard to achieve a Russian crisis if the West does not block Russian oil exports. Some might say it's basically impossible: they could block it for six months but then Russia will find new ways. Or we will block it but the prices will rise and partially compensate for the losses. For instance, if tomorrow oil price falls to US$40 for some reason, then a crisis will definitely begin in Russia. But oil prices are not expected to plummet like this so Russia has resources to continue the war. With the current oil price Russia can live at least a few years without crisis.”
02 Jul 2024
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