“I think this is the first time in the entire Libyan conflict whereby we have military stalemate, the military dynamics are equal. This time as a result of Turkish intervention, the western side, the GNA ... has enough power to prevent Haftar from marching westwards. This ceasefire has a very good chance of lasting because the cost of a potential battle is so high and if an individual faction decides to launch a battle by itself it would find itself obliterated. Now, we are seeing a new phase in the negotiations between Turkey and the other foreign powers. All the dynamics suggest that all the foreign powers prefer some sort of peace at least for the foreseeable future.”
21 Aug 2020
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