“The war may and probably will last years. So long as there is fighting, it is hard to envisage any form of productive diplomatic engagement, let alone rekindling political and economic links. Certainly, until Putin is in office relations will be confrontational. In case of de-escalation, a new line will be drawn across Eastern Europe leaving Ukraine and possibly Moldova and Georgia on the “Western side”, Belarus on Russia's, and Armenia and Azerbaijan in no-man's land. A Cold War-like scenario will materialise, with the pro-Western countries drawn into EU and NATO's orbit and Russia entrenching itself in whatever parts of Ukraine it might succeed to keep.”
11 Feb 2023
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