“I think Russia wants to signal that it's very serious about the potential for war. And I think it will be preparing for what that could look like. It wants to send a message to Ukraine, its Western backers and their citizens to extract as many concessions as possible or at least some kind of understanding. Russia is using these military buildups and exercises as a form of leverage to signal to the West that it wants to rewrite the rules of the security order in Europe. However, actually taking military action would completely change the situation and would deprive Russia of this leverage.”
09 Feb 2022
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