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IPSEs IN THE LAST 24H
  • Chandrachur Singh
    Chandrachur Singh “The opposition - a consortium of nearly two dozen parties - has not been able to rally people around economic distress despite raising it as a prominent election issue. The problem with the opposition is that it is a coming together of parties with divergent views whose only agenda seems to be to dislodge Modi. To the people, that doesn't seem to be a good enough agenda. The fact that the opposition has not projected a face against Modi is also an issue. Rahul Gandhi is slowly emerging as that leader, but in terms of perception, he is still far behind Modi.” 6 hours ago
  • Neelanjan Sircar
    Neelanjan Sircar “A large part of what the BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] does is thinking about how to centralise all political attribution on Modi. Its campaign promises are pitched as Modi's guarantees. This is the strategy of a party where the leader is a cult figure and the party is the vehicle for the leader. Whether it's economic distress or even issues like violence in Manipur, Modi is not directly sullied. People may blame other leaders of the BJP. In regional elections, as a consequence, BJP might be voted out. But it is not anger against Modi.” 6 hours ago
  • Benjamin Netanyahu
    Benjamin Netanyahu “The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all its objectives is out of the question. We will enter Rafah and we will eliminate the Hamas battalions there - with or without a deal, in order to achieve the total victory.” 6 hours ago
  • Nour Odeh
    Nour Odeh “For a while, there was a lot of cautious optimism up until this morning, and then the prime minister announced he will order an invasion of Rafah with or without a deal - in essence trampling all of these ceasefire talks. This is what the families of the captives had feared. This is what the negotiators feared. Netanyahu's comments came after he held meetings with the most right-wing members of his coalition government, including Itamar Ben-Gvir. It's interesting, every time Blinken comes to the region - catching the tailwind of some optimism - something like this happens, and he ends up going home with nothing to show for all this political momentum.” 6 hours ago
  • Randall Kuhn
    Randall Kuhn “Put simply, the situation in Gaza is it's completely intolerable at this point. We're on the border of famine and for us as a university, we have to reckon with the fact that every university in Gaza has been destroyed. As a professor, I find it repugnant to sit by while Palestinian professors are being killed, while academic buildings are being bombed relentlessly.” 6 hours ago
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#Black Sea

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive with the tag #Black Sea linked to them.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

“The return of Crimea is absolutely unrealistic. Before the failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive last summer there was a chance to return the annexed peninsula had Ukrainian forces reached the Azov Sea and started shelling the Crimean bridge and the Kerch Strait that divides the Azov and Black seas. But now it's hardly real to penetrate Russian defence farther than the takeover of the Kinburn peninsula.”

author
Research Fellow at Bremen University
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“So will Russians blame Putin for failing to avert the tragedy? Collective psychology is notoriously unpredictable. Some may, but it is unlikely that anything would come of it. Even without this attack, it has been clear to the Russian population that the period of stability, security and economic growth that Putin has been lauded for is long over. War is literally at the door with Ukrainian forces conducting incursions into Russian territory, sending drones to strike oil refineries and destroying Russian battleships in the Black Sea.”

author
Freelance journalist based in Riga
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“We will be ready to consider the possibility of reviving the grain deal and I told Mr President [Erdogan] about this again today - we will do this as soon as all the agreements on lifting restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products are fully implemented.”

author
President of Russia
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“The future of the Crimea is to be a pearl of the Black Sea, a national park with unique nature and a world resort, not a military base for terrorists. It is just the beginning.”

author
Advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
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“The Russian navy, surface navy at least, is outnumbered four to one by NATO European members alone and by far more by the American navy - so in terms of numbers, there is no contest. Where Russia is equal to the US is in nuclear weapons, which is why President Putin repeatedly emphasises Russia's missile technology because this is the one area in which Russia is still a superpower. The Russian navy has always been considered to have had a relatively high morale and good commanders but it cannot realistically fight NATO … The only area where the navy is actually in action is in the Black Sea and Russia cannot reinforce the navy in the Black Sea.”

author
Senior research fellow on Russia and Europe at the Quincy Institute of Responsible Statecraft
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“Currently there is very little maritime traffic in the Black Sea, in part because mines have been found. We don't know the mine maps...It's not clear what's been done in Odesa so we'd have to send in an anti-mine force. That could take days or even weeks. It's like building a road so that boats can get past each other, and zones for parking, and you have to clear all of them.”

author
Spokesman for the French Navy
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“Turkey and Ukraine were enjoying good and friendly relations before the war. Turkey has strongly supported Ukrainian independence in the 1990s. After its independence, they worked closely to establish a stable environment in the Black Sea [through] economic and military cooperation. Turkey has been playing an active role with its drones, and eight trucks of humanitarian aid have been delivered to local authorities in Ukraine and neighbouring Moldova. Furthermore, in an hourlong call with Moscow [last] Sunday, Erdogan appealed for an urgent general ceasefire. On the fifth day of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Erdogan, one more time, repeated that Turkey could not abandon its ties with Russia or Ukraine. Turkey is still trying to perpetuate the balance-based policy, which does not mean that Turkey has been establishing its policies without a dilemma. Instead, Turkey has been in a stuck position between Russia and the West regarding security, economy, and energy.”

author
Associate professor in politics and international relations at London Metropolitan University
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“[For Ukraine,] Odesa represents a pivotal lifeline to overseas. If Russia seizes Odesa, it will effectively cut off Ukraine from overseas trade and military aid. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, the battle for Odesa would play one of the key roles in determining the future political outcome of the current conflict. For Russia, the complete control of the Ukraine's Black Sea and the Sea of Azov coasts may [be more important] than the seizure of Kharkiv or western Ukraine combined.”

author
Associate professor of national security and strategic studies at Curtin University
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“We see them fly in more combat and support aircraft. We see them sharpen their readiness in the Black Sea. We even see them stocking up their blood supplies. I was a soldier myself not that long ago. I know firsthand that you don't do these sorts of things for no reason. And you certainly don't do them if you're getting ready to pack up and go home.”

author
US Secretary of Defense
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“Allies are sending more ships & jets to enhance NATO defensive deployments in eastern Europe. A strong sign of allied solidarity. Offers include: Danish F-16 jets to Lithuania. French troops to Romania. Dutch F-35 jets to Bulgaria. Spanish frigate heading to the Black Sea.”

author
NATO Spokesperson
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“It must be taken into consideration that the Western partners are aggravating the situation [in the Donbas] by supplying Kyiv with modern lethal weapons and holding provocative military maneuvers in the Black Sea and other regions close to our borders.”

author
President of Russia
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“The United States and its allies in NATO are carrying out unplanned exercises in the Black Sea. Not only is a rather powerful naval group involved in these exercises, but also aviation, including strategic aviation. This is a serious challenge for us.”

author
President of Russia
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“Black Sea is essentially a region Russia itself is a part of. It cannot overreach itself in that environment. For Kremlin, the most serious potential threat from Black Sea region is Ukraine joining NATO or hosting a Western army. Currently this seems remote, but Ukraine is a country that has become most hostile towards Russia than any other country in the world. It [Western Balkans] does not pose a threat to Russia and does not offer many opportunities. It is in the Western sphere of influence, including Serbia and Republika Srpska. Russia is using WB [Western Balkans], particularly Serbia, for public relations – to show that there are leaders in Europe that are rejecting that narrative of Russia as an aggressor.”

author
Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and a former colonel in the Russian army
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“China is the newcomer in the region. Its footprint is quite shallow - but it is rapidly expanding. For Chinese leadership, the Western hegemony is an anomaly. It wants to dominate the 21st century in the same way as West did in 20th. It needs to reduce and replace the influence of US and the EU – with this in mind, the Black Sea and Balkans region is an attractive region for China, a fertile ground. A lot of countries are dissatisfied with the EU, they feel abandoned and patronized by the EU, China can fill this void. As the region tries to balance between West and China economically and stay in the Western sphere of influence, there will have to be political concessions. This situation is not sustainable.”

author
Senior Analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin
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“Through this new canal, the Black Sea and the Marmara waters will get mixed. This will have ecological consequences and imperil an already tenuous water supply and marine life.”

author
Vice president of the Chamber of Urban Planners
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“There is absolutely nothing for American ships to be doing near our shores, this is purely a provocative action. Provocative in the direct sense of the word: they are testing our strength, playing on our nerves. They will not succeed.”

author
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister
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“As a result of testing, analysis and detailed engineering work, another 85 billion cubic meters were added to the reserves we had discovered. Total amount of natural gas reserves in the TUNA-1 well of the Sakarya Gas Field reached 405 billion cubic meters. The reserves we discovered in the Black Sea are the largest hydrocarbon resource of our country till today.”

author
Turkish President
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