“We're seeing a kind of a reduced tempo already of the conflict … and we expect that's likely to be what we see in the coming months. The Ukrainian and Russian militaries will attempt to refit and resupply to prepare for counteroffensives after the winter. We actually have a fair amount of scepticism as to whether or not the Russians will be in fact prepared to do that. I think more optimistically for the Ukrainians in that timeframe. Putin is beginning to realise the challenges his military is faced with. I do think he is becoming more informed of the challenges that the military faces in Russia. But it's still not clear to us that he has a full picture at this stage of just how challenged they are … we see shortages of ammunition, for morale, supply issues, logistics, a whole series of concerns that they're facing.”

by: Avril Haines