“The next step is likely to be a flurry of behind-the-scenes diplomacy, and international pressure, to convince Turkey to quickly remove the roadblock. Sweden and Finland will seek to placate Turkey, but we can also expect the US and the EU to play a leading role in this pressure campaign. After all, both have some leverage over Turkey, be it through [Washington's] sale of military equipment or the [EU's] provision of aid as part of the 2016 migration deal. The most likely outcome remains Finland and Sweden joining the alliance very soon. Erdogan is a transactional leader, and the costs of blocking the two Nordic countries - deeply angering Western allies - would far outweigh the benefits in terms of domestic support. Erdogan also briefly blocked in 2009 the nomination of Anders Fogh Rasmussen as NATO's secretary-general, before relenting after receiving a prize in a high-level appointment for a Turkish official in the alliance. Since the rest of the alliance is welcoming Finland and Sweden with open arms, there is clear political will to overcome this temporary roadblock.”

by: Garret J Martin