“Putin most likely calculates that time works in his favour and that prolonging the war … may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years. If Russia does not institute a mandatory mobilisation and identify substantial third-party ammunition supplies, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain even the current level of offensive operations. We don't see the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains. … They may fully shift to holding and defending the territory they currently occupy.”
08 Mar 2023
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