“This is a toe in the water, but not because Trump necessarily wants to tread carefully. This is a way to send a message and put everyone involved in moving Iranian oil on notice. One of his objectives now is to bankrupt Iran. Since [Trump] was last president, the sanctions community at large - public and private - have learned a lot about how to target a country's oil revenue and go after the broader infrastructure, largely from the experience with Russia's own shadow fleet. Curbing Iranian oil could be part of a broader conversation between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and that the recent sanctions provide a way to ramp up pressure on Tehran without fueling additional tensions with Beijing. China is the big problem to solve if you want to squeeze Iranian oil, but does Trump want a sanctions war with Xi?”
08 Feb 2025
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