“Russia is, of course, fully engaged in its fight in Ukraine, but it does have forces in Syria including warplanes and attack helicopters, military police, and soldiers that are spread across twenty bases. Much of the Russian military support for Assad came in the form of indiscriminate bombing of rebel areas from the air, while Hezbollah supported the regime on the ground. It is possible-indeed likely-that Russia will use the Hmeimim air base in northwestern Syria to do much of the same. Air power alone will not likely be sufficient to beat back the rebels. With government forces unable or unwilling to fight the insurgency and Hezbollah unable to muster the same forces it once did, the Russians find themselves in a difficult situation in Syria. There is no question that Moscow will want to defend its position in Syria, but it is unclear yet whether that includes defending Assad.”
05 Dec 2024
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