IPSE'S AUTHORS LAST 24h
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IPSEs IN THE LAST 24H
  • Igor Grosu
    Igor Grosu “The plebiscite is a chance for Moldovans to show loudly and clearly that we are Europeans. ... We are not entering Europe, we are returning to it.” 18 hours ago
  • Maia Sandu
    Maia Sandu “Joining the EU is the best thing we can give this and future generations.” 18 hours ago
  • Igor Dodon
    Igor Dodon “We are categorically opposed to this referendum. We are not saying 'no' to talks with the EU and we are not opposed to the EU. We oppose Sandu using it as an instrument for her own interests and those of her party. We are therefore asking voters during the campaign not to take part in the referendum.” 18 hours ago
  • Ben Hodges
    Ben Hodges “Since the fall of Avdiivka in Ukraine's east on February 17 [2024], its forces have oozed forward, swallowing several villages, as Ukrainian forces have performed tactical retreats. Here we are in April [2024], and [the Russians] are oozing out. Why is that? I think it's because that's the best the Russians can do. They do not have the capability to knock Ukraine out of the war. Russia lacked the ability to equip large armoured formations that could move rapidly, with supporting artillery, engineers and logistics. I don't think it exists. That's why I feel fairly confident that the mission for [Ukrainian] general Oleksandr Syrskyi for the next several months is to stabilise this as much as he can to buy time for Ukraine to grow the size of the army, to rebuild the defence industry of Ukraine, as well as give us time to find more ammunition for them. I think of 2024 as a year of industrial competition. So the army has got to buy time.” 20 hours ago
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China

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to China.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

“While we need to treat these numbers with caution as there might be significant seasonal and event factors, the overall trend still points to a solid recovery at the beginning of 2023. The decent PMI [Purchasing Managers' Index] readings provide a positive note for the upcoming National People's Congress. We expect the government to roll out further supportive policies to cement the economic recovery.”

author
Economist at Guotai Junan International
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“One of the assessments is that Putin acted very impulsively because of his imperial ambitions, and he has his own worldview. Xi, I think, he's much more pragmatic. He's very cautious. I don't think he's hot-headed enough and he's not a risk taker, and an invasion against Taiwan is one of the biggest acts that he would do. It's a very high-wire act and the chances of success are not clear.”

author
Director of the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation at the University of California, San Diego
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“Isolation from the West is not something (Beijing) wants to risk. President Xi and his colleagues have begun to realise that cooperation with Russia comes with substantial limits to avoid undermining China's own political priorities and longer-term economic interests.”

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Senior research fellow for China in the Asia-Pacific programme at Chatham House
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“Chinese-Russian relations aren't directed against any third countries and certainly can't be subject to pressure from any third countries.”

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State Councillor and China's foreign minister
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“Chinese-Russian relations are mature in character: they are rock solid and will withstand any test in a changing international situation.”

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State Councillor and China's foreign minister
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“To have dispatched an advanced fighter jet to shoot down a balloon with a missile, such behaviour is unbelievable, almost hysterical... What we hope for from the US is a pragmatic and positive approach to China that allows us to work together.”

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State Councillor and China's foreign minister
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“They [Chinese automakers] work the hardest and they work the smartest. And so we guess, there is probably some company out of China as the most likely to be second to Tesla.”

author
CEO of Tesla
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“The data exceeded expectations over the board, which means fewer risks to Q1-23 growth. We have revised our growth forecast for 2023 to 6.0 percent. The latest official statistics contained warning signs for long-term growth, including the first official decline in the population since 1961. Namely, China experienced a permanent loss in potential output as a result of low fertility rates during three long years of zero-COVID, resulting in a marked population decline.”

author
Senior economist for Asia at UBP in Hong Kong
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“2023 will be a tough year. Why? Because the three big economies, [the] US, EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously. China, the world's second-largest economy, is likely to grow at or below global growth for the first time in 40 years as COVID-19 cases surge following the dismantling of its ultra-strict 'zero-COVID' policy. That has never happened before. And looking into next year, for three, four, five, six months the relaxation of COVID restrictions will mean bushfire COVID cases throughout China. I was in China last week, in a bubble in the city where there is 'zero COVID'. But that is not going to last once the Chinese people start travelling. Before COVID, China would deliver 34, 35, 40 percent of global growth. It is not doing it anymore. It is actually quite a stressful for … the Asian economies. When I talk to Asian leaders, all of them start with this question, 'What is going to happen with China? Is China going to return to a higher level of growth?' The US is most resilient. The US may avoid recession. We see the labour market remaining quite strong. This is, however, [a] mixed blessing because if the labour market is very strong, the Fed may have to keep interest rates tighter for longer to bring inflation down.”

author
Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund
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“The Chinese side has noted that the Russian side has said it has never refused to resolve the conflict through diplomatic negotiations, and expressed its appreciation for this.”

author
President of the People's Republic of China
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“With regard to the Ukraine crisis, we have consistently upheld the fundamental principles of objectivity and impartiality, without favouring one side or the other, or adding fuel to the fire, still less seeking selfish gains from the situation.”

author
State Councillor and China's foreign minister
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“Despite China's opposition, the US passed and signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023, which contains negative content concerning China. China deplores and firmly opposes this US move, and has made serious démarches to the US. This Act, in total disregard of facts, hypes up the 'China threat' narrative, blatantly interferes in China's internal affairs, and attacks and discredits the Communist Party of China (CPC). This is a serious political provocation against China. The leadership of the CPC is the choice of history and the people. The Chinese people are clear-eyed about the US's ill intention of suppressing and containing China's development and thwarting the Chinese nation's rejuvenation. Attempts to drive a wedge between the Chinese people and the CPC will not succeed.”

author
Spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry
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“This can't be fixed in the short-run, you can't build iPhone cities that easily in other parts of Asia. The supply chains of companies like Apple are incredibly vulnerable because they're concentrated almost exclusively within China.”

author
Managing director of consultancy China Beige Book
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“December data might be even worse - that's not because everything is getting worse in China, because the end of the tunnel is coming. I am expecting a big collapse in industrial production in December. This will be the immediate consequence of the opening up.”

author
Chief economist of Asia-Pacific at Natixis
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“Oil will probably be higher up the agenda than it was when Biden visited. These are the two most important players in the oil market - Saudi on the supply side and then China on the demand side.”

author
Principal MENA analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft
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“By now it should be clear to the Chinese leadership that it is unrealistic to hope to eliminate COVID-19 entirely through lockdowns and repeated testing, given the Omicron variant's high transmissibility and the large number of asymptomatic cases. The recent protests themselves have not dented Xi's political authority, but unless it adapts, the government may encounter a growing political backlash against its COVID-19 policy.”

author
Assistant Director and Senior Research Fellow of the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore.
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“We often pretend that China has a choice in terms of 'zero Covid' versus opening up. There never was a choice. The simple fact is that China is not ready for a wave on that scale.”

author
Virologist at the University of Hong Kong
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“People have been incredibly patient with lockdown measures but authorities must not abuse emergency policies. These unprecedented protests show that people are at the end of their tolerance for excessive Covid-19 restrictions. The Chinese government must immediately review its Covid-19 policies to ensure that they are proportionate and time-bound. All quarantine measures that pose threats to personal safety and unnecessarily restrict freedom of movement must be suspended.”

author
Amnesty International's Deputy Regional Director
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“Everything we discussed has been leaked to the paper; that's not appropriate. If there is sincerity, we can communicate well with mutual respect, otherwise the outcome will not be easy to tell.”

author
President of the People's Republic of China
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“Beijing is watching Russia's actions in Ukraine and tries on the consequences that affect Russia, assuming what they could mean to China in case it chooses to invade Taiwan.”

author
Analyst for Carnegie Politika, a think-tank formerly based in Moscow
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“The world today is neither peaceful nor tranquil. As major powers, strengthening communication and cooperation between China and the US will help to increase global stability and certainty, and promote world peace and development. China is willing to work with the US to give mutual respect, coexist peacefully… (and) find ways to get along in the new era. Doing so will not only be good for both countries, but also benefit the world.”

author
President of the People's Republic of China
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“An abnormally lopsided victory for one faction, which is rare in the tradition of the Communist Party, in the past there would be a rough balance of power. It means there won't be any checks and balances. Xi Jinping also has total control over the larger Politburo and Central Committee.”

author
Senior Fellow at US think-tank the Jamestown Foundation
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“Ploughing on with zero-Covid could indicate an information deficit. Where nobody really dares to tell Xi Jinping things because he's so powerful.”

author
Senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
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“Everybody is silent. There is almost no opposition - checks and balances - in the party leadership anymore. The entire atmosphere in China now is anybody talks about or discusses about the negatives of Xi Jinping would have … trouble today. You see, that's the problem.”

author
Professor of political science at Guilford College in the United States and author of The Politics of the Core Leader in China
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“China had always respected, cared for and benefited Taiwanese, and was committed to promoting economic and cultural exchanges across the Taiwan Strait. We insist on striving for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and best efforts, but we will never promise to give up the use of force and reserve the option to take all necessary measures. The historical wheels of national reunification and national rejuvenation are rolling forward, and the complete reunification of the motherland must be achieved.”

author
President of the People's Republic of China
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“No matter how the international conjecture changes, we will decisively support Kazakhstan in the defence of its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and … will categorically stand against the interference of any powers in your country's domestic affairs.”

author
President of the People's Republic of China
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“They cheer-lead on behalf of each other, offering moral and political support to their partner when their interests align. But China and Russia are strategically autonomous actors, whose influence on each other's behaviour is limited and indirect at best. And rather than being propelled into a new orbit of cooperation, the long-term outlook for the Russia-China relationship is not promising. The Xi and Putin relationship is primarily based on the self-interests of two strategically autonomous powers and a fundamental difference is that China is invested in global order. China wishes to play a more dominant role, but it does not wish to demolish that order. Putin, however, is focused on disruptive power and a complete overthrow of the international system. That is why Putin has resorted so readily to military force - in Georgia, Syria, Ukraine and, more covertly, in Iraq, Libya, Mali and the Central African Republic. Russia, but not China, has invested in the value of waging war. He [Putin] and those around him identify Russia's ability and will to wage war as a comparative advantage that few others, apart from the United States, possess.”

author
Non-resident fellow at Australia’s think-tank the Lowy Institute
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“It's not a good time to risk anything to come to the aid of Russia, particularly when Russia is doing so poorly in the war. China has a stake in the outcome of the conflict. If Putin is seen as weak, it will be embarrassing for China. And while Putin is doing so badly in the conflict, Beijing is not going to jump in the same pool of fire with Russia.”

author
Associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto
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“China is willing to work with Russia to play a leading role in demonstrating the responsibility of major powers, and to instil stability and positive energy into a world in turmoil.”

author
President of the People's Republic of China
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“A leader more open to influence or subject to greater checks would not likely have implemented such a draconian policy [spring 2022 lockdown in Shanghai], or at least would have corrected course once its costs and unpopularity became evident. But for Xi, backtracking would have been an unthinkable admission of error.”

author
Retired professor at the Communist Party’s top academy
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“Chinese leaders have a much greater degree of control over the financial system and the real economy than US policymakers did in 2008. So they have the tools to stave off an acute crisis. They have the tools to stave off financial contagion and a complete collapse in credit flows because they can simply order the banks to lend. They can work outside the legal bankruptcy system to keep everyone liquid, to avoid disorderly chains of default. China could still be looking at years of economic stagnation, which would feel like a recession to many Chinese after decades of strong growth. We could just see an extended period of slow growth, something more like a Japan scenario, a sort of grinding slowdown over many years even absent acute financial distress or panic in the market.”

author
Lead economist at Oxford Economics
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“What China is experiencing right now is a policy-induced crisis. What I mean by that is, people have been warning about a housing bubble for many years, and for good reason, but the acute stress that the market is under right now is the direct result of very draconian restrictions on lending to developers that were imposed about a year and a half ago.”

author
Managing director of risk analysis company Teneo
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“It's an issue of reunification, complete reunification, and … of Taiwan coming back to the motherland. Use of force was the last thing China wanted, as it was waiting for a peaceful reunification. But we cannot, we can never rule out the option to use other means, so when necessary, when compelled, we are ready to use all necessary means. As to what does it mean, 'all necessary means'? You can use your imagination, but … [the] Chinese people are absolutely determined to protect our sovereignty, territorial integrity, we will never allow Taiwan to be separated from China.”

author
China’s ambassador to Australia
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“[We] are only issuing a warning to the perpetrators. China would firmly smash the Taiwan authorities' illusion of gaining independence through the US. We urge the US to do some earnest reflection, and immediately correct its mistakes.”

author
Spokesperson of China and deputy director of the Foreign Ministry Information Department of China
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“China will use this incident to strengthen its sovereignty claim over Taiwan. For instance, sending squadrons of military aircraft to enter the 'airspace' of Taiwan, or sending military vessels to enter the 'water areas' controlled by the Taiwan military.”

author
Professor of law at the City University in Hong Kong
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“Based on the released information about the PLA drills from August 4 to 7, the six locations have already encircled the island of Taiwan from all directions, and it could be a series of unprecedented military exercises aimed at realizing reunification by force and also to fight against the external forces that could interrupt the reunification process.”

author
Specialist on US affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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“China won't allow another case like 'Pelosi's visit' to happen again, which means we won't let this visit to set a bad example for more countries such as the UK, France and Germany to follow suit, further hollowing out our sovereignty over Taiwan.”

author
Specialist on US affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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