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IPSEs IN THE LAST 24H
  • Alexander Novak
    Alexander Novak “We are working on mechanisms to prohibit the use of a price cap instrument, regardless of what level is set, because such interference could further destabilise the market. We will sell oil and petroleum products only to those countries that will work with us under market conditions, even if we have to reduce production a little.” 16 hours ago
  • Scot Marciel
    Scot Marciel “Beyond the re-appointment of Kyaw Moe Tun in the UN, Russia is being difficult to work with [in terms of reaching a consensus in the international community to pressure the regime] and is publicly backing the junta. China seems to be consolidating its support for the regime as well. It's different from 2021. They provide tangible support for the junta, whereas those who support the resistance and the anti-coup movement are more rhetorical in their support.” 16 hours ago
  • Chen Gang
    Chen Gang “By now it should be clear to the Chinese leadership that it is unrealistic to hope to eliminate COVID-19 entirely through lockdowns and repeated testing, given the Omicron variant's high transmissibility and the large number of asymptomatic cases. The recent protests themselves have not dented Xi's political authority, but unless it adapts, the government may encounter a growing political backlash against its COVID-19 policy.” 17 hours ago
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The housing bubble problem in China

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to the Context The housing bubble problem in China.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

“Chinese leaders have a much greater degree of control over the financial system and the real economy than US policymakers did in 2008. So they have the tools to stave off an acute crisis. They have the tools to stave off financial contagion and a complete collapse in credit flows because they can simply order the banks to lend. They can work outside the legal bankruptcy system to keep everyone liquid, to avoid disorderly chains of default. China could still be looking at years of economic stagnation, which would feel like a recession to many Chinese after decades of strong growth. We could just see an extended period of slow growth, something more like a Japan scenario, a sort of grinding slowdown over many years even absent acute financial distress or panic in the market.”

author
Lead economist at Oxford Economics
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“What China is experiencing right now is a policy-induced crisis. What I mean by that is, people have been warning about a housing bubble for many years, and for good reason, but the acute stress that the market is under right now is the direct result of very draconian restrictions on lending to developers that were imposed about a year and a half ago.”

author
Managing director of risk analysis company Teneo
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“Unlike the disastrous chain reaction at Lehman, this is a controlled demolition, deliberately triggered by the regime. Beijing is doing what critics have been asking China to do for a while - to deflate the housing bubble. It is doing what the west did not do in 2007-2008, ie use regulatory intervention to manage a hard landing short of an outright crash. Evergrande is like Lehman in that it has speculated on real estate. It has a lot of debt spread across the entire Chinese economy and Chinese society. It is opaque. It is worrying But is Evergrande really Lehman? Closer examination suggests that the Evergrande crisis is not like Lehman at all.”

author
History professor at Columbia University
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