IPSEs IN THE LAST 24H
  • Steve Witkoff
    Steve Witkoff “The meeting was positive, upbeat, constructive. Everybody was there to get to the right outcome.” 21 hours ago
  • Marco Rubio
    Marco Rubio “Ending the war in Ukraine could unlock the door for incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians geopolitically on issues of common interest and, frankly, economically on issues that hopefully will be good for the world and also improve our relations in the long term.” 21 hours ago
  • Sergey Lavrov
    Sergey Lavrov “We explained today that the deployment of any troops, any armed forces from NATO countries but under other flags, either the European Union or national flags, changes nothing in this context. For us, of course, this is unacceptable.” 21 hours ago
  • Marco Rubio
    Marco Rubio “Russia and the United States have agreed to restore their embassies in Moscow and Washington to previous staffing levels to facilitate continued diplomatic engagement. We will need active work of diplomatic missions capable of functioning normally to be able to continue these contacts.” 21 hours ago
  • Jana Puglierin
    Jana Puglierin “February 2022 destroyed our faith in a collective security order with Russia and showed us the dark side of our fundamental dependence on Russia and China in critical areas. February 2025 shows us that the Americans no longer feel responsible for European security - and that their interests are fundamentally different from ours.” 21 hours ago
  • Volodymyr Zelenskiy
    Volodymyr Zelenskiy “Ukraine, Europe in a broad sense - and this includes the European Union, Turkiye, and the UK - should be involved in conversations and the development of the necessary security guarantees with America regarding the fate of our part of the world.” 21 hours ago
  • Mariia Mezentseva
    Mariia Mezentseva “It's not yet very clear how this negotiating table will look. But defence and justice must be at the forefront of any solution to end the war, and the US, Europe and Ukraine must be on board. It's not Russia who can dictate the rules because they are the invaders. It has to be absolutely [reversed].” 21 hours ago
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Strategic Considerations for Trump’s Second Term

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to the Context Strategic Considerations for Trump’s Second Term.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

“North Korea, for one, may have less incentive to engage directly with the United States. While Trump during his first term thought he could reach a deal with Pyongyang, it is unclear whether North Korea has an interest in engaging with the U.S. now that it has broader support from Russia and China.”

author
President of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank who served in Obama's cabinet as the U.S. trade representative
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“Trump is very angry with all the people who were happy that he was defeated by Biden. And I think he really wants to make all those people pay, von der Leyen and Scholz and Macron and all the others. He's back, a bit like in a movie, Trump 2.”

author
Research Professor at the CNRS (Centre national de la recherche scientifique), CEVIPOF, Sciences Po, Paris
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“This time around, backers of Mr. Trump and his agenda are pretty coordinated. We know that one of the mistakes from the first time around was that we didn't really have any outside groups, and the ones that were around weren't really on board with the Trump agenda. This time, it's more sophisticated, it's got more money, it's got a whole media and influencer ecosystem, and it started earlier, because a lot of it came out of the campaign.”

author
Former Trump White House adviser
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“Trump tweaking friendly countries harkens back to an aggressive style he used during his days in business. You ask something unreasonable and it's more likely you can get something less unreasonable. Canada is not going to become part of the United States, but Trump's comments are more about leveraging what he says to get concessions from Canada by putting Canada off balance, particularly given the precarious current political environment in Canada. Maybe claim a win on trade concessions, a tighter border or other things. The situation is similar with Greenland. What Trump wants is a win. And even if the American flag doesn't rise over Greenland, Europeans may be more willing to say yes to something else because of the pressure.”

author
Political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Virginia
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“For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”

author
US President-elect
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“Markets have a serenity about trade and immigration policy that I think is unwarranted. Trade and immigration policy could be extremely disruptive to the economy.”

author
Economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank
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“Donald Trump's election last week for a second term in the White House is likely to be on leaders' minds in Riyadh. This summit is very much an opportunity for regional leaders to signal to the incoming Trump administration what they want in terms of US engagement. The message will likely be one of dialogue, de-escalation and calling out Israeli military campaigns in the region.”

author
Senior Gulf analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank
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“He [Donald Trump] can't act outside the bounds of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. We literally have a blueprint of what they are planning to do, and so we had months and months to figure out how to protect people. Trump has told us what to expect - hate and persecution and concentration camps. None of us have any illusions about what we are up against this time.”

author
Founder of the International Refugee Assistance Project
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“Donald Trump has won the presidency, but I don't believe he will deliver on his promises. Like other self-interested autocrats, his remedies are designed to exploit problems instead of solving them, and he's surrounded by oligarchs who want to loot the system instead of reforming it. Mass deportation and tariffs are recipes for inflation. Tax cuts and deregulation will exacerbate inequality. America First impulses will fuel global conflict, technological disruption and climate conflagration. Mr. Trump is the new establishment in this country and globally, and we should emphasize that instead of painting him as an outlier or interloper.”

author
Former Deputy National Security Advisor of the United States under President Barack Obama
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“The average American bought seven pairs of shoes per year, most of which were made overseas and already charged high tariffs when imported. The industry had partly moved out of China into countries like Vietnam in recent years. But shoe sellers are pretty concerned about kind of a Whac-a-Mole trade policy globally that we were going to be hit with additional tariffs coming out of Vietnam. As we head into a second Trump term, all eyes are kind of on what they plan to do, and then how that will obviously impact our costs, which then will impact our consumer.”

author
President of the trade group Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America
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“The tariffs could lead to higher costs, potential delays and pressure for businesses to shift production closer to North American or into the United States. All industries would face unique challenges.”

author
Senior director of supply chain strategy at Moody’s
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“This [Trump's support from Arab Americans and Muslims] was not even a shotgun wedding - it was a blind-date wedding. Trump would pursue policies that will make them more furious. The more they see what's going to happen, the less enchanted they'll be. I don't expect the right wing in the Jewish community to be disappointed at all, unfortunately.”

author
President of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, DC-based think-tank
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“With Trump saying during his campaign that he was going to move forward [and] have a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin and end the war in Ukraine, people here are trying to figure out exactly what the Americans mean by 'a deal with Putin'. Is it going to be forcing the Ukrainians to make more and more concessions, something which was brushed aside by the Ukrainians, by the Germans and by the French in particular? Generally speaking, the Europeans are concerned about what happens next.”

author
Al Jazeera’s journalist
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“We don't yet know whom Trump will put in charge of foreign policy. We have [Vice President-elect] JD Vance, who believes it's possible to grant certain concessions to Moscow [regarding Ukraine], but if it's someone like [former UN Ambassador during Trump's first term] Nikki Haley, she's taken a very hard stance on Russia. Trump's relations with Russia's allies, especially China and Iran, would affect Moscow. We also need to take a look at the bigger picture. Trump considers China to be his chief strategic competitor, and he's indicated he will be bolder towards Iran.”

author
Russian historian, social scientist and now a visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley
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“Trump has gotten a very, very clear mandate. We're in for a significantly authoritarian turn in America. I think he feels emboldened and he will absolutely follow through on a lot of the things that he said. This is an extremely dangerous moment in American history.”

author
Head of the School of Government at Birmingham University
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“I think it's going to be unprecedented in American electoral history, in American presidency. I think we are at a turning point that we haven't seen except a few times in American history. There is a newly changed America, an America that has decided that it wants to break with the past, break with the liberal past. Because if you notice, Trump ran on an agenda that is both nationalistic, ultra-nationalistic, and anti-liberal, in every possible way anti-liberal. We really need to address the fact that Americans in general and independents in particular are no longer happy with liberal Democrats of the East Coast and West Coast. That California and New York will no longer be the dominant political establishment in the United States. That the heart of America, as it were, if you see it in the map, all that red part of America, the hinterland, the America profound, as it were, this is going to rule and govern through Trump. And this America is illiberal to a large degree, it is somewhat conservative, and it's certainly very resistant and very resentful of the liberal elites in New York and California.”

author
Senior political analyst at Al Jazeera
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“I don't believe in that [a wave of retaliation by Trump]. I think there's a lot of theater around that more than there is real sort of retribution. I would anticipate a lot of volatility - personnel but also significant boomerangs on policy. Not boomerang from Biden-Harris but boomerang from himself. You'll have one position one day and another the next.”

author
Former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence
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“Trump has been more assertive and more aggressive on China on the campaign trail. The former president often says things as leverage and then changes them. While Trump in the first term was sort of able to be swayed a little bit by his relationship at times with Xi Jinping, we don't really know what would happen now.”

author
Senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank
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“We have to take Trump at face value. He assumes that he can strike a deal pretty quickly [and] that he would likely block any further assistance to Ukraine. For example, there is the possibility that Trump could reach a deal with Putin that excludes Zelenskyy's input - and could potentially concede quite a lot in terms of Ukraine and its territory. There's also a question of what kind of relationship he would have with Putin and with Russia, and whether that would embolden Russia more generally in the European context - and I think that's a real concern for a lot of people.”

author
Director of the U.S. and the Americas program at Chatham House
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