“We've seen a shift from Putin (as) the kind of pragmatic, rational calculating leader, to someone who is increasingly looking for their place in history, who sees themself on a historical mission to right injustices. That led to a shift in Putin's risk calculus where the short-term costs of his actions paled into insignificance compared to the bigger historical picture. To be frank, you don't station 200,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and invoke the biggest crisis in European security for 40 years if all you're trying to do is extend your control over two small territories that you already control.”
22 Feb 2022
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