• Kaja Kallas
  • Moussa Faki Mahamat
  • Adrian Zenz
  • Matthew Kroenig
  • Andriy Yermak
  • Vitaly Savelyev
  • Oleksandr Korniyenko
  • Dainius Kreivys
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IPSE'S AUTHORS LAST 24h
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IPSEs IN THE LAST 24H
  • Jimmy Rushton
    Jimmy Rushton “Shoigu's replacement with a (relatively experienced and apparently competent) economist [Andrei Belousov] pretty clearly signals Putin believes victory in Ukraine will come via outproducing (and outlasting) Ukraine and her Western allies. He's preparing for many more years of war.” 4 hours ago
  • Konstantin Sonin
    Konstantin Sonin “Things are not going according to Putin's plan, but he will endlessly rotate the same small group of loyalists. Putin has always feared to bring new people to the positions of authority - even in the best of times, they must have been nobodies with no own perspectives. Toward the end of his rule, even more so.” 4 hours ago
  • Mark Galeotti
    Mark Galeotti “With an economist taking over the Defence Ministry, and the old minister taking up a policy and advisory role, the technocrats are in the ascendant. The goal though is not peace, but a more efficient war. As Putin digs in for the long term, with the 'special military operation' now being the central organising principle of his regime, he knows he needs technocrats to keep his war machine going.” 4 hours ago
  • Jeff Hawn
    Jeff Hawn “This indicates that the Kremlin is not seeking an exit from Ukraine, but once to extend their ability to endure the conflict as long as possible. Russia is very limited [on] how much they can increase scale, due to economic deficiencies. However, they can maintain a certain level of attritional warfare. And are likely hoping to do that longer than Ukraine can.” 4 hours ago
  • Dmitry Peskov
    Dmitry Peskov “Today, the winner on the battlefield is the one who is more open to innovation, more open to implementation as quickly as possible. It is natural that at the current stage the president [Vladimir Putin] decided that the Ministry of Defence should be headed by a civilian [Andrei Belousov].” 4 hours ago
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Russia invasion of Ukraine - Geopolitical considerations

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to the Context Russia invasion of Ukraine - Geopolitical considerations.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

Daniel Kritenbrink
Daniel Kritenbrink

“The meeting should have provided China the opportunity to encourage Russia to pursue diplomacy and de-escalation in Ukraine. If Russia further invades Ukraine and China looks the other way, it suggests that China is willing to tolerate or tacitly support Russia's efforts to coerce Ukraine, even when they embarrass Beijing, harm European security and risk global peace and economic stability.”

author
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
05 Feb 2022 6 4
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Thomas Graham
Thomas Graham

“Russia has worked to sanctions-proof its economy, it has reduced the share of dollars in its foreign currency reserves in favour of the euro and yuan, it has sold off dollar-denominated assets in its sovereign wealth fund, and it has moved to payment in local currencies in its energy trade with China. But the Georgian crisis of 2008 and the Ukraine crisis of 2014 were not initiated by Russia because of high oil prices. Russia was responding to developments that it believed jeopardised its security, much as it would say it is doing today.”

author
Former White House adviser on Russian affairs and distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
04 Feb 2022 6 5
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Greg Priddy
Greg Priddy

“Hitting Russia's oil industry directly is impossible in an age when no country has the spare production capacity to replace it. And there are refineries among NATO's Central European members - Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic - which can only be supplied by Russian pipelines. The SWIFT idea was quickly dropped because they realised that targeting SWIFT in a blanket way would mean, for instance, German utilities would have no way to pay for Russian natural gas, and that gets to be unthinkable. Russia has a permission factor in that is clearly 'too big to sanction' like Iran. What I think we have to be concerned about is that Russia has sufficient financial reserves that the scenario where Russia 'trolls' Europe and causes severe energy problems in Europe, which in turn makes it impossible to stay on message with regard to a western response.”

author
Independent oil consultant and former chief energy analyst at Eurasia Group
04 Feb 2022 13 3
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John Tefft
John Tefft

“Many of the analysts felt that President Putin would not launch anything during the Olympics to upstage his friend, President Xi of China. But if you end up with a lot of extra Russian forces on the border with Belarus.… Well, ask any Georgian whether they remember what happened in Georgia in 2008. Russian troops participated in exercises in the North Caucasus that year and many of those troops did not go home after the exercise and were among those who invaded Georgia. And there was Olympics in China back then, as well. There's a lot of parallels here that make you wonder.”

author
Former U.S. ambassador to Georgia, Ukraine, and Russia
31 Jan 2022 10 2
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Leonid Ragozin
Leonid Ragozin

“For the moment, the confrontation with Western powers remains by far the most important source of Putin's legitimacy. By choosing Russia as an enemy, the US and its allies are empowering his dictatorial regime. The West would do well to step back from geopolitical adventurism and the dangerous game of brinkmanship with Putin and instead, channel its efforts towards nurturing a genuine liberal democracy and 21st century governance in a militarily neutral Ukraine.”

author
Freelance journalist based in Riga
30 Jan 2022 7 2
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Marwan Bishara
Marwan Bishara

“Putin may not be planning for a total invasion and occupation of Ukraine; not with merely one hundred thousand troops. But even a minor incursion into eastern Ukraine is bound to trigger a dangerous cycle of actions and reactions, with the US imposing massive and unprecedented sanctions against Russia, aimed at crippling its economy. That's why Putin is seeking the support of China's strongman, Xi Jinping, whom he's scheduled to meet next week on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics. With China on its side, Russia hopes it could resist US sanctions and successfully rebuff Western pressures.”

author
Senior political analyst at Al Jazeera
27 Jan 2022 8 2
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Alexander Baunov
Alexander Baunov

“The source of this talk of a coming war is Western media, politicians, and experts: not the Kremlin, which prefers to use secret special operations to achieve its goals, rather than openly mobilize its troops, which is simply a way of strengthening its negotiating position. Biden has come out of this as the leader who prevented a war, but that's not to say that the summit will necessarily be followed by deescalation and the return of Russian troops to their barracks, as was the case back in the spring after the agreement to hold the Geneva summit. This time, no dramatic deescalation is likely. Biden will be the leader who prevented a war, but not the threat of war: not until Moscow sees new steps taken by Washington on Ukraine and visible signs of work on engaging with Russian security concerns.”

author
Russian international policy expert, journalist, publicist, and former diplomat
10 Dec 2021 9 2
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