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China - North Korea relations

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to the Context China - North Korea relations.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

Ellen Kim
Ellen Kim

“The current diplomatic impasse is clearly due to North Korea's disinterest in talks with the U.S. and South Korea, which seems in part because North Korea wants to signal that the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID) of North Korea is off the negotiation table. But if North Korea's internal and/or external (particularly with respect to China and Russia) environment changes, there could be a window of opportunity that North Korea may want to resume dialogue with the United States and/or South Korea to seek a partial sanctions relief and other things. We should not give up the North's denuclearization because if we do that, this will make North Korea believe that their strategy of nuclear coercion works and could lead the country to make miscalculations and become more aggressive.”

author
Deputy director of the Korea Chair at the Washington-based think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
15 Dec 2022 4 5
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Yoon Seok-youl
Yoon Seok-youl

“It would be extremely unwise for North Korea to conduct a seventh nuclear test. We must respond consistently, and in lockstep with each other. China can and must exercise influence to stop North Korea from developing weapons. What is sure is that China has the capability to influence North Korea, and China has the responsibility to engage in the process.”

author
President of South Korea
29 Nov 2022 3 4
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Ankit Panda
Ankit Panda

“Even the concessions that North Korea would want, I think, are very much unclear at the moment. It's quite possible that the North Koreans are simply… they see the current moment as a great moment of geopolitical realignment in the world with Russia's war against Ukraine, and systemic rivalry between the US and China. And they might have calculated that instead of pursuing negotiations with the United States and trying to revisit that relationship, which they've been trying to revisit for now, really 30 years, their cause is better served by simply doubling down on their relationships with Russia and China.”

author
Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
10 Oct 2022 5 3
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Einar Tangen
Einar Tangen

“If Kim Jong Un were to carry out this test during the Communist Party Congress, it would be considered a real slap against China. To the extent that they do it, it would be more around the US elections because, North Korea is more concerned about a US response at this moment.”

author
Beijing-based political analyst
06 Oct 2022 2 2
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Chun Chae-sung
Chun Chae-sung

“The current (Yoon Suk-yeol) government has this last opportunity for denuclearization. Perhaps, we have already missed it. North Korea perceives the current situation as a new Cold War and has strengthened relations with China and Russia … This means that North Korea's need for U.S. security guarantees and, therefore, reasons for abandoning its nuclear weapons will decrease.”

author
Professor of political science and international relations at Seoul National University
31 Aug 2022 5 4
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Artyom Lukin
Artyom Lukin

“It seemed like the United States wanted to provoke and produce this split in the Security Council, knowing that China and Russia would not support the resolution. Moscow and Beijing appear somewhat tolerant of North Korea's resuming long-range missile launches, but it is far from clear that Pyongyang has Russia's and China's consent, tacit or otherwise, for a nuclear test. Nuclear testing is seen by Beijing, and especially Moscow, as a far more serious matter, compared to missile testing. Nevertheless, Russia sees the Ukraine crisis as a proxy war with the United States, and the war is now bleeding into the situation around North Korea. Even though Moscow and Washington have a real shared interest in the denuclearisation of North Korea, it has now become extremely difficult, if not impossible, for them to collaborate.”

author
Associate professor with Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University
27 May 2022 6 8
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Park Won-gon
Park Won-gon

“Frankly, there are not many options left for the President-elect, President Moon and even the U.S. but to turn to a hawkish stance. Since the North announced its intention to stick to its own nuclear development plan earlier this year, it did not hesitate in ending the moratorium, meaning the regime will likely pursue its goal of producing various nuclear weapons regardless of outside pressure. The only way that looks effective is joining other countries to impose stronger sanctions on North Korea, but this also relates to the North's relations with China.”

author
Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University
25 Mar 2022 6 5
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Zhang Jun
Zhang Jun

“It is right and proper for the U.S. side to show its goodwill, take actions that have practical relevance and work harder to stabilize the situation, build mutual trust, and relaunch dialogue. Are they going to come up with concrete actions that can actually solve problems, or are they going to continue to use the (Korean) Peninsula as a bargaining chip in their geopolitical strategy?”

author
China’s UN Ambassador
25 Mar 2022 3 2
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Bruce Bennett
Bruce Bennett

“With North Korea, we have to remember that the most severe sanction that has been implemented was the closing of the North Korean border with China, something that Kim [Kim Jong-un] did to his country (rather than being a sanction imposed from outside).”

author
Senior international defense analyst at the RAND Corporation
21 Jan 2022 4 2
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Park Won-gon
Park Won-gon

“North Korea cares about China's response, but Beijing did not really criticize Pyongyang's latest missile test. This is like North Korea getting a 'green light' to continue its weapons tests. Unless North Korea conducts a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile or stages missile tests too often in a short period of time, China is likely to stand back and watch. North Korea is likely to continue its missile tests regardless of the results of the South's next presidential election, as they see it as an independent issue. The North's negotiation strategy toward the South's new administration would be presented in another way. If the candidate of the ruling liberal bloc is elected, North Korea is likely to insist on its previous stance that the South and the U.S. should first withdraw what it calls hostile policies against it. If the candidate of the conservative bloc becomes the next president, it is expected to stage a certain level of provocation to see the response of the new administration.”

author
Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University
06 Jan 2022 9 4
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Cheong Seong-chang
Cheong Seong-chang

“His extremely cursory mention of inter-Korean relations and foreign policy indicates that North Korea was not ready to come out for contacts with South Korea or the United States in the new year. Faced with the pandemic, North Korea is expected to continue to keep its borders shut, focusing on self-reliance and conducting only the minimum of essential trade with China.”

author
Director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute
02 Jan 2022 4 6
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Zhang Jun
Zhang Jun

“It has been always China's will that we should also address the humanitarian dimension caused by the sanctions imposed by the Security Council. The 2019 draft resolution remains on the table.”

author
China’s UN Ambassador
01 Nov 2021 2 4
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Cha Deok-cheol
Cha Deok-cheol

“Media reports show that there are signs that some goods are being delivered (from China to North Korea) through maritime shipping routes, but no concrete changes have been confirmed about the resumption of movement via land between Dandong [China] and Sinuiju [North Korea].”

author
Deputy spokesperson of the South Korean unification ministry
08 Oct 2021 5 4
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Jae-yun Shim
Jae-yun Shim

“It is high time for all the relevant parties to combine their efforts toward a single purpose - peace on the Korean Peninsula. The U.S., in particular, can play a crucial role toward that end. As already stated, the U.S. needs to cherish the spirit of the Singapore Agreement, a move toward peace and reconciliation. The North is desperate to earn equal status to other nations. Once it feels regime safety, it will come forward to the international community as a responsible and 'normal' member, instead of expanding its nuclear capabilities. For this, the easing of international 'retaliations' is necessary and the U.S. role is all the more crucial. This will in turn lead to regional peace and the North's lessened dependence on China, which will be in the interests of the U.S.”

author
Journalist at The Korea Times
06 Oct 2021 5 6
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Hua Chunying
Hua Chunying

“Under the current circumstances, the key to breaking the deadlock on the Korean Peninsula and restarting dialogue is that North Korea's justified and reasonable concerns should be taken seriously and addressed. The US should not fall back on empty slogans calling for dialogue, but should demonstrate sincerity and come up with a realistic dialogue proposal. The reversible provisions of North Korea-related UN Security Council resolutions should be activated as soon as possible and necessary adjustments should be made to the existing sanctions, especially those concerning the humanitarian and livelihood of North Korea. This will help restart peninsula dialogue and maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. As a close neighbor of the Korean Peninsula, China always supports the two Koreas to improve relations and advance reconciliation and cooperation through dialogue and consultation. We hope relevant measures will play a positive role in improving and developing North-South relations.”

author
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson
30 Sep 2021 5 10
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Moon Jae-in
Moon Jae-in

“I expect China's steadfast support for denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula. I hope the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics will become another opportunity for improving relations with North Korea, following the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics.”

author
President of South Korea
15 Sep 2021 6 6
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Hong Min
Hong Min

“More analysis is needed, but given that North Korea fired short-range ballistic missiles, this would not cross the U.S. red line and could be seen as mounting a protest against the combined exercises [between US and South Korea]. In addition, it may have been intended to urge the U.S. to concede more for their nuclear negotiations. As the military provocation could pave the way for the Chinese foreign minister to represent North Korea's position on halting the joint exercises and removing challenges against the country, this may have affected the North Korean regime's decision on the timing of the missile firings.”

author
Senior researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification
15 Sep 2021 6 5
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Yang Moo-jin
Yang Moo-jin

“Looks like North Korea's indirect message and even request to Beijing for the Korean Peninsula to be addressed as a central agenda issue for China. At the same time, Pyongyang seems to be claiming and stressing that North Korea is taking the lead in the Korean Peninsula issue.”

author
Professor at the University of North Korean Studies and the vice chairman of the Korean Association of North Korean Studies
15 Sep 2021 2 3
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Xi Jinping
Xi Jinping

“I and Comrade General Secretary have maintained close communication and led the bilateral relations for them to develop in a stable way and, thus steadily made good success, which further enriched the traditional bilateral friendship. I highly value the development of the China-DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] relations and intend to develop these ties of friendship and cooperation on a long-term basis and in a stable way.”

author
President of the People's Republic of China
09 Sep 2021 4 2
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Lee Su-seok
Lee Su-seok

“China cannot ignore the strategic value of North Korea, which is locking horns with the U.S., thus it will accept North Korea's claims if possible. Consequently, the U.S. will consider North Korea and China as a package, and address Pyongyang issues in the perspective of the world order.”

author
Principal research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy
13 Aug 2021 3 4
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