China invasion of Taiwan - General considerations | Ipse by Context

Tai Ming Cheung

Inserted 1 year ago

“One of the assessments is that Putin acted very impulsively because of his imperial ambitions, and he has his own worldview. Xi, I think, he's much more pragmatic. He's very cautious. I don't think he's hot-headed enough and he's not a risk taker, and an invasion against Taiwan is one of the biggest acts that he would do. It's a very high-wire act and the chances of success are not clear.”

Aljazeera

Director of the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation at the University of California, San Diego

23 Feb 2023 6 2

Temur Umarov

Inserted 1 year ago

“Beijing is watching Russia's actions in Ukraine and tries on the consequences that affect Russia, assuming what they could mean to China in case it chooses to invade Taiwan.”

Aljazeera

Analyst for Carnegie Politika, a think-tank formerly based in Moscow

11 Nov 2022 3 2

Collin Koh

Inserted 1 year ago

“If you are going to 'shock and awe' Taiwan with overwhelming force in the initial stages, there might be a lot of civilian casualties. That would make occupation difficult and harden international opposition. The Chinese can't have any illusions now that they will be welcomed as liberators in Taiwan and given supplies and assistance.”

Reuters

Research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

29 Apr 2022 5 2

Zhao Tong

Inserted 1 year ago

“Many Chinese experts are monitoring this war as if they are imagining how this would unfold if it happened between China and the West. China probably should think about conducting a much stronger and much more comprehensive operation at the very beginning to shock and awe the Taiwanese forces to secure a major advantage. They believe securing that advantage would deter enemy forces from being willing to intervene.”

Reuters

Beijing-based security scholar af the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

29 Apr 2022 3 2

James Risch

Inserted 1 year ago

“We must accelerate existing foreign military sales to Taiwan so they get there quicker, and we should use security assistance to help Taiwan acquire additional capabilities. We should absolutely spend more to help with Taiwan's defence. I hope you [Antony Blinken] can commit to that during today's hearing.”

Scmp

United States Senator from Idaho

26 Apr 2022 5 6

Antony Blinken

Inserted 1 year ago

“The administration is determined to make sure that [Taiwan] has all necessary means to defend itself against any potential aggression, including unilateral action by China, to disrupt the status quo that's been in place now for many decades. We're focused on helping them think about how to strengthen asymmetric capabilities … as a deterrent.”

Scmp

U.S. Secretary of State

26 Apr 2022 5 6

Mark Milley

Inserted 2 years ago

“Taiwan is a defensible island. We just need to help the Taiwanese to defend it a little bit better. China is continuing to develop significant nuclear, space, cyber, land, air and maritime military capabilities. They are working every day to close the technology gap with the US and its allies. In short, they remain intent on fundamentally revising the global international order in their favor by mid-century, they intend to be a military peer of the US by 2035 and they intend to develop the military capabilities to seize Taiwan by 2027.”

Taipeitimes

US Army general and the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

07 Apr 2022 3 6

Chang Cheng

Inserted 2 years ago

“Taiwan is much easier to defend than invade, and the conditions are very different from Ukraine. It has been assessed that China could launch four amphibious marine landing divisions and two army infantry divisions for a total of about 30,000 troops, at least for the first stage of invasion. However, with Taiwan's domestically developed long-range missiles, together with portable air-defense missile systems, we are certain that we can destroy almost all PLA landing troops.”

Taipeitimes

Former chief engineer of the Hsiung Feng III missile project

06 Mar 2022 9 2

Richard Heydarian

Inserted 2 years ago

“Despite Russia's recent ruthlessness, it is, unlike China, a fundamentally declining power. Rather than become overly focused on the threat of a diplomatically isolated and economically feeble Russia, the West should allocate more resources to countering China in the Indo-Pacific and deterring an invasion of Taiwan.”

Taiwannews

Research fellow at Taiwan's National Chengchi University

26 Feb 2022 5 2

Bruce Wolpe

Inserted 2 years ago

“If Putin succeeds, and endures the sanctions and can tolerate the Ukrainian people's uprising, and enjoys a resurgence of pride and glory across Mother Russia, [Chinese President Xi Jinping] may want to copy that playbook for Taiwan. And sooner rather than later.”

Taipeitimes

Visiting Fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney

14 Feb 2022 7 3

Michael O'Hanlon

Inserted 2 years ago

“Neither [China and United States] has, or likely will achieve, the credible capability to attain all-out victory against the other, in light of the nuclear arsenals available to each side. Were China to attempt to take Taiwan by force and fail, the former would not simply abandon its mission. Instead, it would try other means, be they military or economic, to annex Taiwan, leading to a prolonged conflict. Conversely, were China to attack and win a fight against Taiwanese and U.S.-allied forces, an embittered U.S. and its allies would be certain to try to open another battlefront against China at a later stage, further endangering world peace.”

Taiwannews

Senior fellow at The Brookings Institution

19 Jan 2022 4 3

Philip Davidson

Inserted 2 years ago

“I believe the next six years is going to be a very worrying time for Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, and all of East Asia. I still believe that now. The PLA's training and war plans for conflict scenarios in the Taiwan Strait all aim at stopping the U.S. from intervening and coming to Taiwan's aid. The U.S. and its allies must let China know that it will pay a huge price if it continues its aggression.”

Taiwannews

Former US Navy Admiral

20 Dec 2021 5 4

Wen-Ti Sung

Inserted 2 years ago

“We're seeing estimates that put the year at 2027 more or less in terms of China having sufficient conventional superiority for a successful offensive, and if you talk to more military crowd, and they will tell you, maybe it's closer to 2035. But that's the straight line projection number. If you take into account other kinds of hawks of war or the possibility of additional friends and allies (of Taiwan) coming to participate in this situation, then we're probably pushing the timeline back further into the future.”

Aljazeera

Lecturer at Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Programme

23 Nov 2021 3 3

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Inserted 2 years ago

“Even moderate voices in Beijing have been calling for tossing out peaceful reunification. I think the military option is the option now.”

Nytimes

Fellow at Stanford University who specialises in Chinese military and security policy

09 Oct 2021 3 5

Tony Abbott

Inserted 2 years ago

“Its [China] relative power might have peaked with its population aging, its economy slowing and its finances creaking. It is quite possible that Beijing could lash out disastrously quite soon. I don't believe the United States could sit by and watch China swallow up Taiwan. I don't believe Australia should be indifferent to the fate of a fellow democracy of almost 25 million people.”

Reuters

Former Australian prime minister

08 Oct 2021 3 6

Chiu Kuo-cheng

Inserted 2 years ago

“The People's Liberation Army (PLA) currently has the ability to invade Taiwan but indicated that it probably will not immediately attack unless provoked because it would have to pay a price. By 2025, China's costs and attrition will be brought to the lowest level and it will have the ability to launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.”

Taiwannews

Taiwan's Minister of National Defense

06 Oct 2021 4 5

Daniel Davis

Inserted 2 years ago

“Bluntly put, America should refuse to be drawn into a no-win war with Beijing. It needs to be said up front: there would be no palatable choice for Washington if China finally makes good on its decades-long threat to take Taiwan by force. Either choose a bad, bitter-tasting outcome or a self-destructive one in which our existence is put at risk.”

Theguardian

Senior fellow for defense priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the US army

05 Oct 2021 2 5

Herbert Raymond McMaster

Inserted 2 years ago

“China will keep turning up the heat with provocations in the region, especially next year since Xi [Xi Jinping] will likely continue as chairman for an unprecedented third term. It is a very dangerous time. I think it is probably not the most dangerous time yet. I do think that 2022, as many people have pointed out, is a critical period.”

Taiwannews

Former United States National Security Advisor (2017 to 2018)

04 Oct 2021 2 7

Simon Tang

Inserted 2 years ago

“Xi [Xi Jinping] has staked his reputation on Taiwan. When he turns 70 two years from now, he is going to become increasingly aware that his time is running out. People do not get into his position without having enormous egos, which they project out all through their lifetimes, so they become invested in the ridiculous belief that their 'legacies' matter to them. All in all, Taiwan is a big concern.”

Taipeitimes

Adjunct professor at California State University

30 Sep 2021 2 3

Mark Milley

Inserted 2 years ago

“There's no reason to do it militarily, and they know that. So, I think the probability is probably low, in the immediate, near-term future. My assessment in terms of capability, I think China has a ways to go to develop the actual, no-kidding capability to conduct military operations to seize through military means the entire island of Taiwan, if they wanted to do that.”

Taipeitimes

US Army general and the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

17 Jun 2021 3 5

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China invasion of Taiwan - General considerations

“Beijing is watching Russia's actions in Ukraine and tries on the consequences that affect Russia, assuming what they could mean to China in case it chooses to invade Taiwan.”

“If Putin succeeds, and endures the sanctions and can tolerate the Ukrainian people's uprising, and enjoys a resurgence of pride and glory across Mother Russia, [Chinese President Xi Jinping] may want to copy that playbook for Taiwan. And sooner rather than later.”

“Even moderate voices in Beijing have been calling for tossing out peaceful reunification. I think the military option is the option now.”

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