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Phillips O’Brien “They can certainly keep Ukraine in the fight. A lot of it depends on what the US does. We have to be careful about that. If the US actually moves to fully backing Russia and provides Russia with a significant amount of intelligence and support, that will be really a problem for Ukraine and Europe. But assuming, say, the US just pulls out and washes its hands of it, Europe has the resources to keep Ukraine going. It would require mobilisation, effort, a significant amount of commitment on Europe's part. So far, they've not, I think, shown the united will to do that, but they certainly could do it if they wanted to. They have the money. They have the technological know-how. They even have the military equipment to make a significant difference.” 4 minutes ago
Nguyen Khac Giang “Hanoi is being careful not to signal a tilt too far toward Beijing, especially in areas that could displease the Trump administration. Ultimately, Hanoi is still hedging between the world's two great powers. But as the geopolitical climate hardens, the space to do so is rapidly shrinking.” 23 hours ago
Lynn Kuok “Chinese officials have quietly conveyed that the way the U.S. treats its longstanding allies and partners in Europe is a sign of what's to come for Southeast Asia. With Trump's steep, sweeping tariffs across the region, that message needs no reinforcement.” 23 hours ago
Christopher Beddor “It [tariff of 145% on all Chinese goods] makes a fairly bad situation worse. The economy has been grinding through one deflationary shock for several years now, and there is another shock that is imminent. The trade war is going to leave some sort of hole in the economy.” 23 hours ago
Jerome Powell “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.” 23 hours ago
Kristalina Georgieva “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries. Ultimately, trade is like water. When countries put up obstacles in the form of tariff and non-tariff barriers, the flow diverts. Some sectors in some countries may be flooded by cheap imports; others may see shortages. Trade goes on, but disruptions incur costs.” 23 hours ago
Oleksandr Syrskyi “The enemy has not changed its plans to drive Ukrainian Armed Forces units beyond the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and reach the administrative borders of these regions. However, the enemy's plan remains unfulfilled. We are continuing our defensive operations while also conducting counteroffensive actions, and we have seen some success. Over the past few weeks, we have liberated around 16 square kilometres of territory near Udachne, Kotlyne and Shevchenko. I thank the Ukrainian soldiers for their courage, resilience and professionalism.” 23 hours ago

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William Burns

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Lynn Kuok Political Scientist

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IPSEs IN THE LAST 24H

Phillips O’Brien “They can certainly keep Ukraine in the fight. A lot of it depends on what the US does. We have to be careful about that. If the US actually moves to fully backing Russia and provides Russia with a significant amount of intelligence and support, that will be really a problem for Ukraine and Europe. But assuming, say, the US just pulls out and washes its hands of it, Europe has the resources to keep Ukraine going. It would require mobilisation, effort, a significant amount of commitment on Europe's part. So far, they've not, I think, shown the united will to do that, but they certainly could do it if they wanted to. They have the money. They have the technological know-how. They even have the military equipment to make a significant difference.” 4 minutes ago
Nguyen Khac Giang “Hanoi is being careful not to signal a tilt too far toward Beijing, especially in areas that could displease the Trump administration. Ultimately, Hanoi is still hedging between the world's two great powers. But as the geopolitical climate hardens, the space to do so is rapidly shrinking.” 23 hours ago
Lynn Kuok “Chinese officials have quietly conveyed that the way the U.S. treats its longstanding allies and partners in Europe is a sign of what's to come for Southeast Asia. With Trump's steep, sweeping tariffs across the region, that message needs no reinforcement.” 23 hours ago
Christopher Beddor “It [tariff of 145% on all Chinese goods] makes a fairly bad situation worse. The economy has been grinding through one deflationary shock for several years now, and there is another shock that is imminent. The trade war is going to leave some sort of hole in the economy.” 23 hours ago
Jerome Powell “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.” 23 hours ago
Kristalina Georgieva “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries. Ultimately, trade is like water. When countries put up obstacles in the form of tariff and non-tariff barriers, the flow diverts. Some sectors in some countries may be flooded by cheap imports; others may see shortages. Trade goes on, but disruptions incur costs.” 23 hours ago
Oleksandr Syrskyi “The enemy has not changed its plans to drive Ukrainian Armed Forces units beyond the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and reach the administrative borders of these regions. However, the enemy's plan remains unfulfilled. We are continuing our defensive operations while also conducting counteroffensive actions, and we have seen some success. Over the past few weeks, we have liberated around 16 square kilometres of territory near Udachne, Kotlyne and Shevchenko. I thank the Ukrainian soldiers for their courage, resilience and professionalism.” 23 hours ago

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China influence in Southeast Asia

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