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IPSEs IN THE LAST 24H
  • Alexander Novak
    Alexander Novak “We are working on mechanisms to prohibit the use of a price cap instrument, regardless of what level is set, because such interference could further destabilise the market. We will sell oil and petroleum products only to those countries that will work with us under market conditions, even if we have to reduce production a little.” 14 hours ago
  • Scot Marciel
    Scot Marciel “Beyond the re-appointment of Kyaw Moe Tun in the UN, Russia is being difficult to work with [in terms of reaching a consensus in the international community to pressure the regime] and is publicly backing the junta. China seems to be consolidating its support for the regime as well. It's different from 2021. They provide tangible support for the junta, whereas those who support the resistance and the anti-coup movement are more rhetorical in their support.” 15 hours ago
  • Chen Gang
    Chen Gang “By now it should be clear to the Chinese leadership that it is unrealistic to hope to eliminate COVID-19 entirely through lockdowns and repeated testing, given the Omicron variant's high transmissibility and the large number of asymptomatic cases. The recent protests themselves have not dented Xi's political authority, but unless it adapts, the government may encounter a growing political backlash against its COVID-19 policy.” 15 hours ago
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China economy

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to the Context China economy.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

“Chinese leaders have a much greater degree of control over the financial system and the real economy than US policymakers did in 2008. So they have the tools to stave off an acute crisis. They have the tools to stave off financial contagion and a complete collapse in credit flows because they can simply order the banks to lend. They can work outside the legal bankruptcy system to keep everyone liquid, to avoid disorderly chains of default. China could still be looking at years of economic stagnation, which would feel like a recession to many Chinese after decades of strong growth. We could just see an extended period of slow growth, something more like a Japan scenario, a sort of grinding slowdown over many years even absent acute financial distress or panic in the market.”

author
Lead economist at Oxford Economics
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“China's economy has stood on the edge of falling into stagflation, although the worst is over as of the May-June period. You can rule out the possibility of a recession, or two straight quarters of contraction. Given the tame growth, China's government is likely to deploy economic stimulus measures from now on to rev up its flagging growth, but hurdles are high for PBOC to cut interest rates further as it would fan inflation which has been kept relatively low at present.”

author
Chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo
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“Often, the heads of different departments and companies attend one meeting in the morning about enhancing dynamic zero, and then in the afternoon a meeting about economic growth. The tensions are within Xi's own model for governing the country. The tensions really arise from him.”

author
Independent political commentator in Beijing
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“I'm very worried where this is going because the current lockdown in Shanghai has been looking like it is going to end after this May holiday which means most people can probably walk around their neighbourhoods but for most factories around the East coast they are not in a very good condition. Taking notice of what is happening in Shanghai, many other cities are taking precautionary measures - even with one COVID case a whole city can be locked down. We might be looking at a situation where 30 cities might be locked down simultaneously. That is hugely disruptive to the supply chain.”

author
Chief economist at Hang Seng Bank
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“We expect a stronger macro policy response in the second quarter to shore up growth, but the impact will be limited in the context of restricted mobility. The effectiveness of policy stimulus will depend on whether mobility will still be restricted in a broad scale, so risks to the outlook remain skewed to the downside.”

author
Lead China economist at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong
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“A slowing Chinese economy will negatively impact many economies that have remained dependent on China for export growth, such as Germany and South Korea. A slowing China means greater capital flows to the U.S. and Europe as well. China's slowdown is structural, and the result of middle-income status economic challenges, as well as the limits of debt- and property-driven growth. These problems will take considerable time to solve, and only a very clear signal of turning away from political intervention and back toward private market forces can restore China's potential.”

author
Partner at New York-based research provider Rhodium Group and a China analyst
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“The key factors in our GDP growth forecast include COVID-19's impact on domestic demand, as well as overseas demand; the tightness of the supply chain, such as via high freight costs and the shortage of semiconductor chips. The property market is now undergoing massive M&As [Mergers and acquisitions], and the main potential buyers should be state-owned developers. We expect proactive fiscal policies, such as building more infrastructure projects and loosening monetary policies through cutting interest rates, to support the economy.”

author
ING's chief economist for Greater China
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“Commodity dependent exporters will be hit hardest by China's shift, and countries with greater diversification will be able to weather the shift with relatively less impact. Resource-rich African states could feel the effects most sharply.”

author
Brookings scholar on China and Asia
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“It will have pretty substantial external implications. And those might play out for years to come. China has the world's highest number of billionaires but some 600 million citizens survive on an annual per capita income barely above $1,600. A rebalance by China is almost certain to lead to slower growth rates during the transition.”

author
Senior Fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center and a professor of finance at Peking University
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“The regulatory crackdowns are part of a broader paradigm shift that has taken place in how Beijing is approaching its economic policy and management. This includes acknowledging that China's old debt-fueled, investment-heavy growth model has run out of road. The new paradigm prioritises national security concerns, especially as far as data is concerned, and brings increased attention to socioeconomic trends, such as inequality that can cause instability and threaten the Party's control.”

author
Managing director of China Beige Book International
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“This has meant cutting people such as Alibaba's Jack Ma down to size, forcing the private sector to demonstrate obeisance - as with Tencent's Pony Ma and Xiaomi's Lei Jun - and demonstrating that the party-state has the right to set both technical standards and moral parameters for business activity.”

author
Associate professor of global affairs at the University of Notre Dame
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“For companies, this means that their job is no longer to make money, but instead to contribute to societal goods. Where companies are not seen doing that, they will face swift regulatory action.”

author
Analyst at Trivium China
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“The central government's requirement that developers reduce the size of their debts, combined with slack housing sales, means more defaults are likely. Such incidents will be isolated, and the overall picture of the industry remains sound.”

author
Research director with real estate information provider China Real Estate Appraisal
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“The strong growth momentum in China's exports showed that China-made products will grow increasingly competitive on the global markets. This in turn showed that China's industrialization level and manufacturing standards are upgrading, as the country planned. This is something that we hope to see as China marches toward its 2035 development target. And from this perspective, I don't think there's too much to worry (about China's economy).”

author
Former vice director of the Beijing Economic Operation Association
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“Considering China's GDP growth had a climbing trend last year, it is very normal that growth slopes down gradually on that basis this year. So far, China's GDP growth is suitable.”

author
Chief research fellow at the Sinosteel Economic Research Institute
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“The latest data was on the lower side but added that China remained confident it could reach growth of about 8 percent for the year. That would make China one of, if not the, best performers among the larger economies in the world.”

author
Vice president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing
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“Growth was dragged down by a slowdown in real estate, amplified recently by spillover from Evergrande's travails. In response to the ugly growth numbers we expect in coming months, we think policymakers will take more steps to shore up growth, including accelerating infrastructure development and relaxing some aspects of overall credit and real estate policies.”

author
Oxford Economics’ head of Asia economics
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“We must note that current international environment uncertainties are mounting and the domestic economic recovery is still unstable and uneven.”

author
Spokesman of the China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
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“What the leader of the People's Republic of China have been saying you might have noticed that in one of the latest speeches where I have personally been present that was an international event in the framework of the UN where I've been present and I remember that president Xi [Xi Jinping] was saying that the People's Republic of China has no plans to use military power to resolve any type of problems or conflicts that was more or less his statement that's the first thing I wanted to say. Secondly as far as I understand the Chinese philosophy regarding the philosophy of statehood and state management it does not include use of force and thirdly I think China does not need to use force. China is a huge powerful economy and in terms of purchasing parity China is the economy number one in the world ahead of the United States now. And by increasing this economic potential China is capable of implementing its national objectives.”

author
President of Russia
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