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  • Sergei Shoigu
    Sergei Shoigu “The U.S. and its allies are trying to prolong the conflict as much as possible. To do this, they have started supplying heavy offensive weapons, openly urging Ukraine to seize our territories. In fact, such steps are dragging NATO countries into the conflict and could lead to an unpredictable level of escalation.” 3 hours ago
  • Oleg Danilov
    Oleg Danilov “Attempts at an offensive in either the Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia direction will of course be made. How successful they'll be will depend on us.” 3 hours ago
  • John Kirby
    John Kirby “It strains credulity … that this was some kind of weather balloon that was floating on the winds.” 3 hours ago
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China economy

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to the Context China economy.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

“The data exceeded expectations over the board, which means fewer risks to Q1-23 growth. We have revised our growth forecast for 2023 to 6.0 percent. The latest official statistics contained warning signs for long-term growth, including the first official decline in the population since 1961. Namely, China experienced a permanent loss in potential output as a result of low fertility rates during three long years of zero-COVID, resulting in a marked population decline.”

author
Senior economist for Asia at UBP in Hong Kong
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“2023 will be a tough year. Why? Because the three big economies, [the] US, EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously. China, the world's second-largest economy, is likely to grow at or below global growth for the first time in 40 years as COVID-19 cases surge following the dismantling of its ultra-strict 'zero-COVID' policy. That has never happened before. And looking into next year, for three, four, five, six months the relaxation of COVID restrictions will mean bushfire COVID cases throughout China. I was in China last week, in a bubble in the city where there is 'zero COVID'. But that is not going to last once the Chinese people start travelling. Before COVID, China would deliver 34, 35, 40 percent of global growth. It is not doing it anymore. It is actually quite a stressful for … the Asian economies. When I talk to Asian leaders, all of them start with this question, 'What is going to happen with China? Is China going to return to a higher level of growth?' The US is most resilient. The US may avoid recession. We see the labour market remaining quite strong. This is, however, [a] mixed blessing because if the labour market is very strong, the Fed may have to keep interest rates tighter for longer to bring inflation down.”

author
Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund
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“This can't be fixed in the short-run, you can't build iPhone cities that easily in other parts of Asia. The supply chains of companies like Apple are incredibly vulnerable because they're concentrated almost exclusively within China.”

author
Managing director of consultancy China Beige Book
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“December data might be even worse - that's not because everything is getting worse in China, because the end of the tunnel is coming. I am expecting a big collapse in industrial production in December. This will be the immediate consequence of the opening up.”

author
Chief economist of Asia-Pacific at Natixis
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“Chinese leaders have a much greater degree of control over the financial system and the real economy than US policymakers did in 2008. So they have the tools to stave off an acute crisis. They have the tools to stave off financial contagion and a complete collapse in credit flows because they can simply order the banks to lend. They can work outside the legal bankruptcy system to keep everyone liquid, to avoid disorderly chains of default. China could still be looking at years of economic stagnation, which would feel like a recession to many Chinese after decades of strong growth. We could just see an extended period of slow growth, something more like a Japan scenario, a sort of grinding slowdown over many years even absent acute financial distress or panic in the market.”

author
Lead economist at Oxford Economics
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“China's economy has stood on the edge of falling into stagflation, although the worst is over as of the May-June period. You can rule out the possibility of a recession, or two straight quarters of contraction. Given the tame growth, China's government is likely to deploy economic stimulus measures from now on to rev up its flagging growth, but hurdles are high for PBOC to cut interest rates further as it would fan inflation which has been kept relatively low at present.”

author
Chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo
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“Often, the heads of different departments and companies attend one meeting in the morning about enhancing dynamic zero, and then in the afternoon a meeting about economic growth. The tensions are within Xi's own model for governing the country. The tensions really arise from him.”

author
Independent political commentator in Beijing
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“I'm very worried where this is going because the current lockdown in Shanghai has been looking like it is going to end after this May holiday which means most people can probably walk around their neighbourhoods but for most factories around the East coast they are not in a very good condition. Taking notice of what is happening in Shanghai, many other cities are taking precautionary measures - even with one COVID case a whole city can be locked down. We might be looking at a situation where 30 cities might be locked down simultaneously. That is hugely disruptive to the supply chain.”

author
Chief economist at Hang Seng Bank
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“We expect a stronger macro policy response in the second quarter to shore up growth, but the impact will be limited in the context of restricted mobility. The effectiveness of policy stimulus will depend on whether mobility will still be restricted in a broad scale, so risks to the outlook remain skewed to the downside.”

author
Lead China economist at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong
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“A slowing Chinese economy will negatively impact many economies that have remained dependent on China for export growth, such as Germany and South Korea. A slowing China means greater capital flows to the U.S. and Europe as well. China's slowdown is structural, and the result of middle-income status economic challenges, as well as the limits of debt- and property-driven growth. These problems will take considerable time to solve, and only a very clear signal of turning away from political intervention and back toward private market forces can restore China's potential.”

author
Partner at New York-based research provider Rhodium Group and a China analyst
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“The key factors in our GDP growth forecast include COVID-19's impact on domestic demand, as well as overseas demand; the tightness of the supply chain, such as via high freight costs and the shortage of semiconductor chips. The property market is now undergoing massive M&As [Mergers and acquisitions], and the main potential buyers should be state-owned developers. We expect proactive fiscal policies, such as building more infrastructure projects and loosening monetary policies through cutting interest rates, to support the economy.”

author
ING's chief economist for Greater China
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“Commodity dependent exporters will be hit hardest by China's shift, and countries with greater diversification will be able to weather the shift with relatively less impact. Resource-rich African states could feel the effects most sharply.”

author
Brookings scholar on China and Asia
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“It will have pretty substantial external implications. And those might play out for years to come. China has the world's highest number of billionaires but some 600 million citizens survive on an annual per capita income barely above $1,600. A rebalance by China is almost certain to lead to slower growth rates during the transition.”

author
Senior Fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center and a professor of finance at Peking University
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“The regulatory crackdowns are part of a broader paradigm shift that has taken place in how Beijing is approaching its economic policy and management. This includes acknowledging that China's old debt-fueled, investment-heavy growth model has run out of road. The new paradigm prioritises national security concerns, especially as far as data is concerned, and brings increased attention to socioeconomic trends, such as inequality that can cause instability and threaten the Party's control.”

author
Managing director of China Beige Book International
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“This has meant cutting people such as Alibaba's Jack Ma down to size, forcing the private sector to demonstrate obeisance - as with Tencent's Pony Ma and Xiaomi's Lei Jun - and demonstrating that the party-state has the right to set both technical standards and moral parameters for business activity.”

author
Associate professor of global affairs at the University of Notre Dame
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“For companies, this means that their job is no longer to make money, but instead to contribute to societal goods. Where companies are not seen doing that, they will face swift regulatory action.”

author
Analyst at Trivium China
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“The central government's requirement that developers reduce the size of their debts, combined with slack housing sales, means more defaults are likely. Such incidents will be isolated, and the overall picture of the industry remains sound.”

author
Research director with real estate information provider China Real Estate Appraisal
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“The strong growth momentum in China's exports showed that China-made products will grow increasingly competitive on the global markets. This in turn showed that China's industrialization level and manufacturing standards are upgrading, as the country planned. This is something that we hope to see as China marches toward its 2035 development target. And from this perspective, I don't think there's too much to worry (about China's economy).”

author
Former vice director of the Beijing Economic Operation Association
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“Considering China's GDP growth had a climbing trend last year, it is very normal that growth slopes down gradually on that basis this year. So far, China's GDP growth is suitable.”

author
Chief research fellow at the Sinosteel Economic Research Institute
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