IPSE'S AUTHORS LAST 24h
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IPSEs IN THE LAST 24H
  • Carl Bildt
    Carl Bildt “The situation looks increasingly precarious for Russian forces in Lyman as Ukrainian forces are about to cut them off. Another painful defeat for the Russian invasion forces is looming.” 8 hours ago
  • António Guterres
    António Guterres “Any decision to proceed with the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions of Ukraine would have no legal value and deserves to be condemned. I want to underscore that the so-called referenda were conducted during active armed conflict in areas under Russian occupation and outside Ukraine's legal and constitutional framework. They cannot be called genuine expression of the popular will.” 8 hours ago
  • Pao-Lin Tien
    Pao-Lin Tien “For the US, if inflation does not show signs of cooling in the last few months of 2022, and measures of inflation expectations start to climb, it would force the Federal Reserve to continue with aggressive rate hikes beyond 2022 into the spring of 2023 - in my opinion that's when the economy will tip into a recession. I think a similar situation would apply to other countries as well, if central banks are forced to increase rates aggressively and persistently, either to defend their currency or to tame inflation, then a recession is inevitable.” 17 hours ago
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Economy

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive with Category Economy.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

“For the US, if inflation does not show signs of cooling in the last few months of 2022, and measures of inflation expectations start to climb, it would force the Federal Reserve to continue with aggressive rate hikes beyond 2022 into the spring of 2023 - in my opinion that's when the economy will tip into a recession. I think a similar situation would apply to other countries as well, if central banks are forced to increase rates aggressively and persistently, either to defend their currency or to tame inflation, then a recession is inevitable.”

author
Assistant professor of economics at George Washington University
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“There is no way that the U.S. government will revise the law because Biden has touted it as one of his biggest achievements in office ahead of the midterm elections in November. In addition, the U.S. cannot give an exception only to Korea, while its other close allies are subject to the IRA [Inflation Reduction Act].”

author
Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University
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“Semiconductors are known as the rice of industries and they are the most important area in the fourth industrial revolution. In a way, we can say our survival depends on it. As president, I always have to prepare food for the people for the future, which I don't think is a long-term task but a current task that needs to be handled in real time. I feel reassured by your presence and ask that you establish the right directions.”

author
President of South Korea
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“I don't think that the Russian explanation on this particular issue [Vladimir Putin claiming that almost all the Ukrainian grain shipped under a UN-backed deal to ease a global food crisis is reaching rich European nations] reflects the reality on the ground. I think the Russians are feeling a growing exposure to Ukrainian attacks in recent days, and also the Europeans are increasing pressure on Russia, so I think the Russian leadership might have decided to find a way to inflict damage [given] this growing assault. We should see [this] as part of a larger geopolitical game. It's part of a tit for tat [situation]. I find the idea that the Ukrainian ships are targeting nations other than the ones in the Global South somehow fabricated.”

author
Professor of international relations at Istanbul Aydin University
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“In total, two-thirds of the ships sent are directed to Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The recovery of Ukrainian food exports through the grain corridor had a positive effect on the reduction of prices as in August, after first shipments were completed, wheat prices fell by at least five percent. The Russians' fakes about sending Ukrainian grain only to Europe simply do not correspond to reality.”

author
Foreign Minister of Ukraine
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“The ongoing energy crisis in Europe is caused by Russia's decision to use energy as a weapon, and it is now also severely affecting Fortum and other Nordic power producers.”

author
Fortum (Finnish utility) Chief Executive
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“Chinese leaders have a much greater degree of control over the financial system and the real economy than US policymakers did in 2008. So they have the tools to stave off an acute crisis. They have the tools to stave off financial contagion and a complete collapse in credit flows because they can simply order the banks to lend. They can work outside the legal bankruptcy system to keep everyone liquid, to avoid disorderly chains of default. China could still be looking at years of economic stagnation, which would feel like a recession to many Chinese after decades of strong growth. We could just see an extended period of slow growth, something more like a Japan scenario, a sort of grinding slowdown over many years even absent acute financial distress or panic in the market.”

author
Lead economist at Oxford Economics
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“What China is experiencing right now is a policy-induced crisis. What I mean by that is, people have been warning about a housing bubble for many years, and for good reason, but the acute stress that the market is under right now is the direct result of very draconian restrictions on lending to developers that were imposed about a year and a half ago.”

author
Managing director of risk analysis company Teneo
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“When you look at Russia, it has the first, second and third highest reserves globally of practically everything. From energy to diamonds, to fresh water, to rare earths and other minerals, it's an extremely rich country. And despite its current estrangement from the West, the Kremlin was far from being geopolitically isolated. Russia has some powerful friends, such as China, India, and Iran, and some increasingly powerful acquaintances, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and much of Africa. On balance, therefore, I suspect that Russia will prevail.”

author
Founder of Dezan Shira & Associates, a pan-Asian investment consulting firm
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“This agreement is an important development for the global economy and our U.S. capital markets, which remain preeminent largely because of their ability to balance investor protections and access to the world's leading companies.”

author
President of the New York Stock Exchange
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“So far, there are no signs that the drop in living standards could lead to unrest. The living standards decline has not reached the point where attitudes towards reality start to change significantly and the fridge clearly begins to beat the TV.”

author
Founder of social studies think tank Platforma
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“Connecting with the world and with the mainland, we shall do both and they are not contradictory. I understand that one of Hong Kong's competitiveness lies in its international connections.”

author
Chief Executive of Hong Kong
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“If all (details) are completed by tomorrow, it seems like there is a high possibility that the first ship will leave the port tomorrow...We will see ships leaving the ports the next day at the latest.”

author
Turkish Presidential Spokesman
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“The upbeat result would give the BOK some relief that it can focus on its inflation-targeting mandate for the time being. The main surprise was, of course, stronger than expected consumption, which was mainly driven by the reopening. However, we think that the reopening-boosted spending is expected to lose its initial steam and normalise in the current quarter. And, going forward, consumer's purchasing power is expected to weaken as the faster-than-expected interest rate hikes should put more burden on debt payment and consumer spending, while inflation is expected to accelerate during the current quarter.”

author
Senior economist for South Korea and Japan at ING
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“While the U.S.-China rivalry has been showing signs of turning into a zero-sum game, deciding whether to join the chip alliance is a really complicated issue even for the Yoon administration, which supports the U.S.' Indo-Pacific strategy against China while seeking to build a bilateral relationship of mutual respect with Beijing. The previous strategic ambiguity between the U.S. and China meant we would not suffer a loss or pay a cost while benefiting from them, but that era has ended and now we are facing a situation in which that we have to put up with a loss or shoulder expenses. Should Korea not join the alliance, Japan would try to fill our absence, and in consideration of that, we will be in a position to accept the U.S. invitation.”

author
Professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University
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“As far as [the Ukrainians] are concerned, this [the deal] is one and done for the time being. They see this as a deal that they have signed with the United Nations and with Turkey and certainly not with Russia. The Ukrainians here are very clear that they see the Russians as an aggressor nation and we know that they're approaching the International Criminal Court to set up a whole new investigation with the intention of charging senior Russian leadership with the crime of being an aggressor nation.”

author
Al Jazeera’s journalist reporting from Kyiv
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“One of the tests of this is how the shipping market reacts and there will be a test of implementation in the coming weeks to see if this goes ahead. It's not going to happen straight away, you're not going to see a ship that is sailing in the next couple of days. I think we're talking a couple of weeks at the earliest for the first ship of grain and remember we are talking about a 22-million-tonne grain backlog that has formed in Ukraine and has caused much of the global food crisis.”

author
Al Jazeera’s diplomatic editor
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“Russia is concerned that weapons might be brought via ships to Ukraine and Ukraine is concerned about the safety of its grain deliveries to world markets. The agreement will also pave the way for Russian food and fertilisers to reach world markets as well.”

author
Al Jazeera’s journalist reporting from Istanbul
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“The grain export agreement, critically important for global food security, will be signed in Istanbul tomorrow under the auspices of President Erdoğan and UN Secretary General Mr. Guterres together with Ukrainian and Russian delegations.”

author
Turkish Presidential Spokesman
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“The economic impact of the pandemic has declined across most of Asia, but we're far from a full and sustainable recovery. On top of the slowdown in the PRC, fallout from the war in Ukraine has added to inflationary pressure that's causing central banks around the world to raise interest rates, acting as a brake on growth. It's crucial to address all these global uncertainties, which continue to pose risks to the region's recovery.”

author
Asian Development Bank Chief Economist
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“Meaningful consensus, on even a limited scale, is simply not possible when there are such deeply conflicting sets of political-economic interest. Facilitation of Russia's interests as a part of a compromise deal, for example, would undoubtedly be viewed by other G20 nations, such as the US and UK, as helping to facilitate and legitimise its war on Ukraine. A sizable chunk of G20 countries are actively opposed to Russia's invasion. It is extremely naïve to imagine consensus would be possible and that this wouldn't overshadow the entire event.”

author
Lecturer in politics and security studies at Murdoch University in Perth
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“Russia chose this war, having been warned that a broad coalition of countries would respond with sanctions. By starting this war, Russia is solely responsible for negative spillovers to the global economy, particularly higher commodity prices.”

author
United States Secretary of the Treasury
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“China's economy has stood on the edge of falling into stagflation, although the worst is over as of the May-June period. You can rule out the possibility of a recession, or two straight quarters of contraction. Given the tame growth, China's government is likely to deploy economic stimulus measures from now on to rev up its flagging growth, but hurdles are high for PBOC to cut interest rates further as it would fan inflation which has been kept relatively low at present.”

author
Chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo
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“When you're faced with as many inputs as we're going to see this week ... it's not unusual for investors to take a risk-off attitude. If (earnings) estimates for the second half don't go down and actually go up a little bit, that's going to shed some of the concern that we're slamming on the brakes and the economy is getting into a recession.”

author
Chief market strategist at B. Riley
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“Often, the heads of different departments and companies attend one meeting in the morning about enhancing dynamic zero, and then in the afternoon a meeting about economic growth. The tensions are within Xi's own model for governing the country. The tensions really arise from him.”

author
Independent political commentator in Beijing
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“The last few months have shown one thing: Putin knows no taboos. A complete halt to gas supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline cannot therefore be ruled out.”

author
Managing director of German industry association Zukunft Gas
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“Once that change happens, once the heads at the helm change, there is some sense that policy change can actually be implemented and accepted by the people. Last time the people really protested, there was a real change. It is increasingly likely the president will have to take real steps towards change.”

author
Economist based in Colombo - Sri Lanka
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“We've essentially ground our way back to where we were pre-Covid. So, this doesn't necessarily look like a dire situation, despite the fact that we're struggling with inflation and economic declines in some other dimensions.”

author
Professor of finance at the Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina
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“Sanctions restrictions on Russia cause much more damage to those countries that impose them. Further use of sanctions may lead to even more severe - without exaggeration, even catastrophic - consequences on the global energy market. We know that the Europeans are trying to replace Russian energy resources. However, we expect the result of such actions to be an increase in gas prices on the spot market and an increase in the cost of energy resources for end consumers. We should feel confident in ourselves but you should see the risks - the risks are still there.”

author
President of Russia
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“The future price trend is expected to surpass our forecast made in May given changes in various circumstances, including accelerating international oil prices. There is a possibility that this year's price growth exceeds the level (of 4.7 percent) in 2008. Going forward, consumer prices will likely continue their upward move by staying over a 5 percent rise for the time being as inflation pressures are mounting from both the supply and demand sides.”

author
Bank of Korea biannual report
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“If in the near future cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation through Lithuania is not restored in full, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests.”

author
Statement of Russia’s Foreign Ministry
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“We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine. Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices.”

author
Secretary General of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
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“We will not have a closed economy, we have not had one and we will not have one. We did not have a closed economy - or rather we did in the Soviet times when we cut ourselves off, created the so-called Iron Curtain, we created it with our own hands. We will not make the same mistake again - our economy will be open. A country like Russia cannot be fenced in.”

author
President of Russia
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“Banning 90% of Russian oil imports gives a big blow to Putin's war chest. Withdrawal of Patriarch Kyrill shows limits of foreign policy based on unanimity. Religious leaders should not be shielded from responsibility for supporting Putin's war.”

author
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
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“Russian financial authorities successfully managed to deal with the emotional reaction of the population and businesses at the onset of the war. The price hike was caused by [the] first emotional reaction, because it put a lot of pressure on customers to buy everything. But then the beginning of April, the situation returned to normal. The supply is there. Yes, there are some troubles with importing goods, but there aren't too many. The price hike was mostly on the psychological side, rather than on the economic side.”

author
Energy markets expert
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“Three factors have been supporting the rouble: escalating oil prices due to sanctions, capital controls, and a drop in dollar demand and excess FX [foreign exchange] liquidity due to high FX revenues from exports of oil and gas. Due to sanctions and capital controls, an artificial and highly supportive environment” was created for the rouble.”

author
Chief investment strategist at ITI Capital
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“We are the most important client for Russia. The purpose is to make Russia have less financial resources to feed its war machine.”

author
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
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“Russia and Cyprus have longstanding links because of the Orthodox Church and the fact that Cyprus was part of the nonaligned movement in the Cold War. It had a good non-double taxation treaty with the Soviet Union, which carried on after 1990, so that generated a lot of business after the breakup of the USSR. And [Cypriots] don't have the mistrust of Russia that NATO countries have. Already since 2013 Russians had moved away from the banks, gradually they moved out of professional services sector, then they moved out of real estate, now it's right across the board.”

author
Director of consultancy firm Sapienta Economics
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“Agreement to ban export of Russian oil to the EU. This immediately covers more than two thirds of oil imports from Russia, cutting a huge source of financing for its war machine. Maximum pressure on Russia to end the war.”

author
President of the European Council
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“The South Pacific countries know how to play the aid game. Chinese money will be accepted, but often the South Pacific countries do not stay bought. It will take more than one visit to change minds. The West needs to be concerned, but not frantic.”

author
Former legislator in Vanuatu
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“Don't be too anxious and don't be too nervous. Because the common development and prosperity of China and all the other developing countries would only mean great harmony, greater justice and greater progress of the whole world.”

author
State Councillor and China's foreign minister
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“We're getting a little bogged down in all of the details and we're forgetting the big picture. It's only money, the Ukrainians are paying with their lives. We can and we must support them, if only out of self interest because only when Russia is defeated can we in Europe feel safe.”

author
Prime Minister of Latvia
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“Thanks to these factors, inflation is falling faster than we expected. This allows us to lower the key rate today without creating new pro-inflationary risks. We allow for the possibility of further easing of the key rate at upcoming meetings. The first months (since February) were a time for tactical decisions: we had to counteract the first sanctions shock. We managed to protect financial stability and not allow an inflation spiral to unfold. But this, of course, absolutely does not mean that we can breathe easily.”

author
Head of the Central Bank of Russia
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“Africa has become the collateral victim of a distant conflict, that between Russia and Ukraine. By profoundly upsetting the fragile global geopolitical and geostrategic balance, it has also cast a harsh light on the structural fragility of our economies. The most emblematic sign of these fragilities is the food crisis following the climatic disorders, the health crisis of COVID-19, amplified today by the conflict in Ukraine. This crisis is characterised by a shrinking world supply of agricultural products and a soaring inflation of food prices.”

author
Chairperson of the African Union Commission
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“It has long been clear that while China is a major trading partner, there are very relevant problems, including when it comes to respecting human rights. Germany is diversifying more, reducing its dependency on China, and will closely examine applications from German companies wanting to make investments in China to rule out human rights violations and forced labour in the supply chain. At the EU level, too, government subsidies to Chinese competitors who want to enter the domestic market should be looked at more closely.”

author
Vice Chancellor of Germany and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action
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“We are looking to deepen our economic partnership with Taiwan, including on high technology issues, including on semiconductor supply, but we're pursuing that in the first instance on a bilateral basis.”

author
US National Security Adviser
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“I think a lot of partners are going to look at that list and say: 'That's a good list of issues. I'm happy to be involved, but, you know, are we going to get any tangible benefits out of participating in this framework?'.”

author
Asia adviser on the National Security Council during the Barack Obama and George W Bush administrations
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“Lithuania officially stops importing Russian gas, oil and electricity. An excellent example for other allies of how to gain independence from Russian energy resources. Thank you for your support.”

author
First deputy speaker of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
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“Not only it is an extremely important milestone for Lithuania in its journey towards energy independence, but it is also an expression of our solidarity with Ukraine. We must stop financing Russian war machine.”

author
Minister of energy of Lithuania
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“President Biden's visit to Pyeongtaek Campus [Samsung Electronics Pyeongtaek Campus] not only manifests the significance of semiconductors in economic and national security but also gives an opportunity to recall the meaning of the Korea-U.S. global comprehensive alliance through semiconductors. I ask President Biden to provide various incentives for Korean semiconductor companies' investment toward the U.S. and pay greater attention to U.S. equipment and designing companies' investments in Korea. And I hope today's visit will result in upgrading Korea-U.S. relations to become an economic security alliance which is based on advanced technologies and supply chain partnerships.".”

author
President of South Korea
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“The strike has faced the government with a real challenge. Although the government closed down schools and offices, claiming air pollution as the reason, traffic throughout the city was heavily affected. There is a possibility that the strike could spread to include subway and other transportation workers in the city.”

author
Iranian labor activist
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“Eventually, Ukraine will need massive support and private investment for reconstruction and recovery, akin to the task of rebuilding in Europe after 1945. What's clear is that the bilateral and multilateral support announced so far will not be sufficient to address Ukraine's needs, even in the short term.”

author
United States Secretary of the Treasury
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“Russia has an interest to maintain its geopolitical clout with Turkey through energy interdependence. Also Russia wants to prove that she still can deliver on nuclear exports despite the sanctions. Ultimately, if the first unit is not ready in 2023, there will be huge disappointment from the Turkish side and that disappointment, most likely, will translate into Turkey's foreign policy approach to Russia.”

author
Expert on energy geopolitics at the Eurasian Energy Chamber
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“The Akkuyu project is the first in the global nuclear industry based on a build-own-operate model. It means Russia is responsible for all capital expenses during the construction phase. With sanctions, this model is at risk because it is more difficult for Russia to allocate funding. There is now more pressure on its international reserves - half of them have been frozen - so whether Russia can continue to spend these amounts for a reactor in Turkey is unclear. Russia is likely to pressure Turkey to find local companies to take up to a 49 percent stake in Akkuyu.”

author
Director of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies
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“The collective West has declared total hybrid war on us and it is hard to predict how long all this will last but it is clear the consequences will be felt by everyone, without exception. We did everything to avoid a direct clash - but now that the challenge has been thrown down, we of course accept it. We are no strangers to sanctions: they were almost always there in one form or another.”

author
Russian Foreign Minister
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“Russia's aviation industry could end up like the one in Iran, which has been able to maintain a fleet of Western-built aircraft using some back-end measures to keep them flying. Russia has a commercially successful aerospace industry that still employs hundreds of thousands of people. It has produced aircraft in the past, so there is a history and infrastructure for designing and producing aircraft engines and aircraft components. It won't be perfect and it would probably result in keeping a skeleton fleet of sorts, but they have a lot of the tools needed to make it work to keep western-built aircraft flying for decades.”

author
Associate at AeroDynamic Advisory, where he is responsible for research and analysis of aviation and aerospace markets
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“Western governments guided by short-sighted, inflated political ambitions and by Russophobia, deal a much harder blow to their own national interests, their own economies and the well-being of their own citizens. We see it above all by looking at the sharp rise of inflation in Europe which is close to 20% in some countries. It is obvious that... the continuation of the obsession with sanctions will inevitably lead to the most difficult consequences for the European Union, for its citizens. Russia is confidently managing in the face of external challenges.”

author
President of Russia
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“Storage levels are currently sufficient to last through most of 2022, even if Russian flows were to stop instantly, barring any unexpected weather events - but the outlook for winter 2022 supply is now a lot more pessimistic.”

author
Senior analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy
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“The bill approved by the House on Tuesday is a bid to deal a serious defeat to our country and limit its economic development and political influence in the world. It won't work. The printing press by which America is constantly increasing its already inflated government debt will break faster.”

author
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“We agree with this sanction, but are saying that we need a transitory period until we adapt to the situation. What is being discussed today is the duration of the transitory period.”

author
Slovakia’s economy minister
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“The Brussels package of sanctions would ban oil shipments from Russia to Europe, with a rather short notice, in case of Hungary the end of next year. Hungary cannot support the measures in their current form. Hungary could only agree to these measures if crude oil imports from Russia via pipeline were exempted from the sanctions.”

author
Hungarian Foreign Minister
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“European countries are shooting themselves in the leg. I can't imagine at what price those countries will get oil [elsewhere]. Maybe the United States will provide crude oil, but again, at what price?”

author
Russian political analyst
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“The sky-high fossil fuel prices and continued imports into Europe have provided the Kremlin with a major windfall and undermined the effect of economic sanctions.”

author
Lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki
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“All things considered, it's holding up better than initially expected. The Russian economy is still projected to fall into a recession later this year. But so far, it has managed to blunt the harshest economic consequences of the Western sanctions.”

author
Senior economist with the Bank of Montreal
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“They're luring away a lot of Taiwanese talent and cultivating their own industries in ways that are implicitly weakening the Taiwanese economy, and they're doing this without sending ships or boats into Taiwanese territorial space.”

author
Analyst for China, Taiwan, and Macau at the Economist Intelligence Unit
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“EU's proposed sixth round of sanctions on Russia notably makes no reference to Russian gas. Why? Because in a sense it's a bit like it is the elephant in the European living room - it is too big to be ignored but also so big that to do away with it straight away might have a catastrophic effect on economies across this continent.”

author
Al Jazeera’s journalist
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“Putin must pay a price, a high price, for his brutal aggression. We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion, in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes and minimises the impact on global markets.”

author
President of the European Commission
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“Putin wants to try to convince Europe of the consequences - to show that Europe is going to pay for their support of Ukraine. If the economy suffers and people suffer, [it's possible] that European nations - Germany or France or some other nations - would say, 'This isn't worth it'.”

author
Deputy director of the Kennan Institute in Washington
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“We have managed to reach a situation where Germany is able to bear an oil embargo. This means it won't be without consequences. We still have no solution for the refinery in Schwedt. We can't guarantee that supplies will be continuous. There will for sure be price hikes and there will be some outages. But that doesn't mean we will slide into an oil crisis.”

author
Vice Chancellor of Germany and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action
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“I'm very worried where this is going because the current lockdown in Shanghai has been looking like it is going to end after this May holiday which means most people can probably walk around their neighbourhoods but for most factories around the East coast they are not in a very good condition. Taking notice of what is happening in Shanghai, many other cities are taking precautionary measures - even with one COVID case a whole city can be locked down. We might be looking at a situation where 30 cities might be locked down simultaneously. That is hugely disruptive to the supply chain.”

author
Chief economist at Hang Seng Bank
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“Lend-Lease is a commodity loan, and not cheap: many future generations of Ukrainian citizens will pay for all the ammunition, equipment and food that the United States will supply. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is driving the country into a debt pit.”

author
Chairman of the State Duma
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“In Moscow it may seem that nothing [bad] is happening. But if you are in the Kaluga region or near St. Petersburg, where there are car assembly plants, everyone there knows that in a couple of months they will be out of work.”

author
Deputy chief economist at the Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF)
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“Alternative supplies are available, and Bulgaria hopes that alternative routes and supplies will also be secured at EU level. Obviously gas is used as a political tool. As long as I am minister, Bulgaria will not negotiate under pressure, Bulgaria is not for sale and does not succumb to any trade counterpart.”

author
Bulgarian Energy Minister
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“Gazprom's announcement is another attempt by Russia to blackmail us with gas. We are prepared for this scenario. We are mapping out our coordinated EU response. Europeans can trust that we stand united and in solidarity with the Member States impacted.”

author
President of the European Commission
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“The consequences of an oil embargo would likely cause a recession in Europe. While the US, the EU, the UK, and other countries have sanctioned Russia, Russian export revenues since the beginning of the invasion is not decreasing. Even if European governments agreed to stop Russian coal imports starting in August, it is not enough. The prices for oil would increase on a global scale. Using alternative oil provisions from the Middle East and Africa would take time, which in turn would force European countries to adopt an energy policy characterised by austerity.”

author
Cybersecurity and intelligence expert in Italy
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“Imagine how many missiles and bombs you can buy for that kind of money. Some people in Europe still have extremely narrow thinking. They believe they can help us, that they're our great friends and indeed they are. But they do not understand that by supplying this money to Putin, they are funding his military machine. If Russians are committing war crimes, even genocide, whoever is supplying Russia with this bloody money is guilty of the same war crime.”

author
Economic adviser to the President of Ukraine (Zelenskyy)
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“Russia has enough resources for six months. By the year's end, its gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by up to 15 percent, and then two to three years of adaptation will follow. In the end, they will have an autarky like that in Iran.”

author
Kyiv-based analyst
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“Sanctions had mainly affected the financial market but now they will begin to increasingly affect the economy. The main problems will be associated with restrictions on imports and logistics of foreign trade, and in the future with restrictions on exports. Russian manufacturers will need to search for new partners, logistics, or switch to the production of products of previous generations. Exporters would need to look for new partners and logistical arrangements and all this will take time.”

author
Head of the Central Bank of Russia
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“We expect a stronger macro policy response in the second quarter to shore up growth, but the impact will be limited in the context of restricted mobility. The effectiveness of policy stimulus will depend on whether mobility will still be restricted in a broad scale, so risks to the outlook remain skewed to the downside.”

author
Lead China economist at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong
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“We hope to strengthen the [bilateral] ties even more economically. We are here to show support for what we love. We love freedom, we love the ability to achieve your individual dreams, we love the ability to pick our own leaders, we love the rule of law and we hate the rule of [the] gun. It is often asked what would America do if the Chinese Communist Party became more provocative against Taiwan. I'm convinced we would stand for what we love. We would stand with you.”

author
Senator from South Carolina and member of the Republican Party
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“What's astonishing is that the so-called partners from unfriendly countries concede themselves that they won't be able to make do without Russian energy resources, including without natural gas, for example. There is no rational replacement (for gas) in Europe now. Unfriendly countries admit that they cannot do without Russian energy resources.”

author
President of Russia
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“Of course we will sue, because we have taken all the necessary steps to ensure that investors receive their payments. We will present in court our bills confirming our efforts to pay both in foreign currency and in roubles. It will not be an easy process. We will have to very actively prove our case, despite all the difficulties.”

author
Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation
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“You've kind of hit the ceiling - on both sides of the Atlantic - for what can be done easily and what can be done in short order. To move to a tougher round of sanctions, U.S. officials will need to provide some assurances to European countries that energy markets and supplies can be stabilized to avoid severe economic hardship. If Western Europe is plunged into a recession, that's going to drastically limit the amount of support - both moral and material - that they can provide to Ukraine.”

author
U.S. director at the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy
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