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“Putin is likely to be smarting and looking for a big win on Ukraine as a diversion from his humiliation in Kazakhstan. [US President Joe] Biden will likely see the situation in Kazakhstan as weakening Putin - the US will appraise the situation as making it less likely that Putin would risk a crisis on two fronts. So Biden is also less likely to compromise. This makes the situation in Ukraine more, not less dangerous.”
10 Jan 2022
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