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Scott Snyder

Researcher, Director, Analyst

Scott Snyder

Inserted 1 year ago

“If we consider the lessons learned from Hanoi, one possible lesson Kim Jong-un may have taken from the experience is that from his perspective, the United States did not take sufficiently seriously the idea that the North was negotiating from a position of strength. North Korea is asserting that its laws make denuclearization negotiations a non-starter. As a result, it is hard to imagine how the United States and North Korea will be able to frame a diplomatic negotiation process around a set of commonly held objectives. A logical course of action would be to further strengthen the North's military program so that its nuclear capabilities would be regarded as undeniable and irreversible. Once North Korea's Kim believes he has adequately achieved those objectives, he might in principle then be ready to return to diplomatic negotiations with the United States, but from an even stronger position than the North's Kim was in when he met with Trump in Hanoi in February of 2019.”

Senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank

15 Sep 2022 5 4

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Scott Snyder

Inserted 1 year ago

“Yoon's initiative adds to a long list of failed offers involving South Korean promises to provide economic benefits to North Korea … These were the same assumptions that were behind a succession of failed efforts to jump-start denuclearisation talks. The acuteness of North Korea's economic vulnerability will make the leadership all the more resistant towards South Korean-proposed infrastructure projects.”

Senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank

18 Aug 2022 3 3

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Scott Snyder

Inserted 2 years ago

“It's clear that the Biden administration is focused on strategic competition with China as a primary foreign policy objective, or as a primary frame for thinking about the challenges it faces in the world. It was very intentional that it opened its foreign policy approach in that way [first two leaders to visit the US - the Japanese Yoshihide Suga followed by the South Korean Moon Jae-in]. The US sees South Korea as a like-minded country, a democracy, a security ally… which basically means the US thinks South Korea has already made a choice,” Snyder explained. “Basically what they have been doing is to cooperate under the surface with the US but not necessarily publicly. They’re like a student that aces the written exam but is deeply afraid of class participation.”

Director of the US-Korea policy programme at the Council on Foreign Relations

20 May 2021 4 3

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18

Thursday

Aug, 2022

Yoon's initiative adds to a long list of failed offers involving South Korean promises to provide economic benefits to North Korea … These were the same assumptions that were behind a succession of failed efforts to jump-start denuclearisation talks. The acuteness of North Korea's economic vulnerability will make the leadership all the more resistant towards South Korean-proposed infrastructure projects.

20

Thursday

May, 2021

It's clear that the Biden administration is focused on strategic competition with China as a primary foreign policy objective, or as a primary frame for thinking about the challenges it faces in the world. It was very intentional that it opened its foreign policy approach in that way [first two leaders to visit the US - the Japanese Yoshihide Suga followed by the South Korean Moon Jae-in]. The US sees South Korea as a like-minded country, a democracy, a security ally… which basically means the US thinks South Korea has already made a choice,” Snyder explained. “Basically what they have been doing is to cooperate under the surface with the US but not necessarily publicly. They’re like a student that aces the written exam but is deeply afraid of class participation.

15

Thursday

Sep, 2022

If we consider the lessons learned from Hanoi, one possible lesson Kim Jong-un may have taken from the experience is that from his perspective, the United States did not take sufficiently seriously the idea that the North was negotiating from a position of strength. North Korea is asserting that its laws make denuclearization negotiations a non-starter. As a result, it is hard to imagine how the United States and North Korea will be able to frame a diplomatic negotiation process around a set of commonly held objectives. A logical course of action would be to further strengthen the North's military program so that its nuclear capabilities would be regarded as undeniable and irreversible. Once North Korea's Kim believes he has adequately achieved those objectives, he might in principle then be ready to return to diplomatic negotiations with the United States, but from an even stronger position than the North's Kim was in when he met with Trump in Hanoi in February of 2019.