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“China is likely going to release some type of retaliation against the US … while Japan has said it will also consider some type of retaliatory duties, we expect US agriculture to be mainly in the crosshairs there. That said, a lot of other Asian markets aren't really in a position to retaliate. Places like Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, they have been hit with higher tariffs, but the size of their economy, their dependence on external trade, and the importance of the US as a source of final demand will really constrain their ability to adopt a hawkish attitude here.”
03 Apr 2025
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