Ian Garner
“Europe has spent more time discussing, making statements, and making calls than actually putting its money where its mouth is and stepping up to give concrete support to Ukraine or to pursue any other policy of its own choosing. Everybody is technically on the same page. The problem is when you actually look at finer details of the plans, everybody disagrees. All these European leaders are still trapped in potential maybes. Nobody has come up with a cohesive, comprehensive, and collaborative plan to say, 'Here's what we would actually be willing to definitely do.' And so, of course, Trump, Putin, and even Zelenskyy don't take Europe seriously.”
16 hours ago
Majda Ruge
“There seems to be a group of EU countries who are clear that they are not going to be part of a poorly designed and hasty Trump deal, and who are focused on continuing their support to Ukraine.”
16 hours ago
Abdulaziz Alghashian
“Many people are preparing themselves for something very negative on the horizon in regards to the ongoing yet fragile Gaza ceasefire. I think they sense that Netanyahu is someone who's really confident, especially after leaving Washington [and] getting a great deal of support from the White House for his dream of pushing people out of Palestine. The emboldened Israeli prime minister might, at some point, try to draw the United States into attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. Netanyahu is trying to create a great deal of instability so he could prolong his political career.”
16 hours ago
Ian Garner
“Europe has spent more time discussing, making statements, and making calls than actually putting its money where its mouth is and stepping up to give concrete support to Ukraine or to pursue any other policy of its own choosing. Everybody is technically on the same page. The problem is when you actually look at finer details of the plans, everybody disagrees. All these European leaders are still trapped in potential maybes. Nobody has come up with a cohesive, comprehensive, and collaborative plan to say, 'Here's what we would actually be willing to definitely do.' And so, of course, Trump, Putin, and even Zelenskyy don't take Europe seriously.”
16 hours ago
Majda Ruge
“There seems to be a group of EU countries who are clear that they are not going to be part of a poorly designed and hasty Trump deal, and who are focused on continuing their support to Ukraine.”
16 hours ago
Abdulaziz Alghashian
“Many people are preparing themselves for something very negative on the horizon in regards to the ongoing yet fragile Gaza ceasefire. I think they sense that Netanyahu is someone who's really confident, especially after leaving Washington [and] getting a great deal of support from the White House for his dream of pushing people out of Palestine. The emboldened Israeli prime minister might, at some point, try to draw the United States into attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. Netanyahu is trying to create a great deal of instability so he could prolong his political career.”
16 hours ago
“Mr. Yoon's impeachment is not the end of South Korea's political turmoil. It is not even the beginning of the end. The impeachment concluded only an executive-legislative standoff over an attempt at martial law. Next is Yoon's defense in front of the Constitutional Court and likely prosecution for insurrection.”
“In both North Korean politics and military policy, the best defense is often a good offense. Pyongyang is also determined not to appear weak while South Korea conducts defense exercises with Japan and the United States.”
“For Kim Jong-un, this visit is a victory. Not only does the summit upgrade North Korea's status among countries standing against the U.S.-led international order, it also helps bolster Kim's domestic legitimacy. Russia cannot replace China economically, but increasing cooperation with Moscow shows that Pyongyang has options. For now at least, Putin's war in Ukraine sets up an 'axis of transactionalism' among sanctions violators looking to trade yesterday's weapons for today's military technology.”
“The China-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit is more about reducing frictions than reshaping geopolitics. Relations would advance further if China allows better access for Japanese and Korean diplomats in Beijing and improves the business environment for foreign companies.”
“The Kim regime prioritizes advancing its military capabilities and doesn't care to stay quiet during the South Korean legislative election campaign. But firing an intermediate-range missile lacks the shock value of a full-range ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] launch or a nuclear test, so it's unlikely to swing any National Assembly seats. Although Pyongyang's weapons development remains a major concern, Seoul is currently focused on health care reform, economic policies, and domestic political scandals.”
“If they simply wanted a secret arms deal, the two leaders did not have to meet in person. Putin and Kim's diplomatic display is meant to claim success in challenging the U.S.-led international order, avoiding over-reliance on China, and increasing pressure on rivals in Ukraine and South Korea.”
“If conflict were imminent on the Korean Peninsula, you wouldn't want to be a crew member on that submarine. Even if its nuclear attack capability is largely a bluff, that loud, slow boat could be sunk as soon as it left port. It's another example of North Korea misallocating resources against the welfare of its people. Kim wants to increase military power, but when Pyongyang is more threatening, it is actually less secure.”
“Pyongyang presumably notified Tokyo of the impending launch because the rocket may fly over Japanese territory, and the Kim regime wants to claim it is conducting a legitimate space program. But the notification does not appear to meet international standards, and any North Korean satellite launch is illegal under UN Security Council resolutions that ban North Korean ballistic missile tests.”
“The days of North Korea disguising ICBM activity as satellite launches were long-gone. Kim's blatant violations of UN Security Council resolutions showed that his goal was to make North Korea a full-fledged nuclear power and demand concessions from other countries.”
“Such parades largely serve to justify Kim's policies to a domestic political audience. The regime has staked its legitimacy on nuclear weapons at the expense of diplomacy and the economy. The message Pyongyang wants to send internationally, demonstrating its capabilities to deter and coerce, will likely come in the form of solid-fuel missile tests and detonation of a miniaturised nuclear device.”
“Pyongyang's claim of testing a solid-fuel motor for longer range ballistic missiles supports its more aggressive, recently declared doctrine of using nuclear weapons if the Kim leadership or strategic assets come under threat. Once deployed, the technology would make North Korea's nuclear forces more versatile, survivable, and dangerous.”
“Pyongyang's politics of blaming external threats and projecting confidence in military capabilities can motivate greater risk taking. North Korean probing of South Korean perimeter defenses could lead to a serious exchange of fire and unintended escalation.”
“North Korea's cruise missiles, air force, and tactical nuclear devices are probably much less capable than propaganda suggests. But it would be a mistake to dismiss North Korea's recent weapons testing spree as bluster or sabre-rattling. Pyongyang's military threats are a chronic and worsening problem for peace and stability in Asia that must not be ignored. Policymakers in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington should not allow domestic politics and other challenges such as Russia's war in Ukraine to prevent them from increasing international coordination on military deterrence and economic sanctions.”
“Pyongyang has been concerned about military exercises by the U.S., South Korea and Japan, so to strengthen its self-proclaimed deterrent, it is making explicit the nuclear threat behind its recent missile launches. The KCNA report may also be harbinger of a forthcoming nuclear test for the kind of tactical warhead that would arm the units Kim visited in the field.”
“Instead of accepting invitations to dialogue, the Kim regime appears to be preparing a tactical nuclear warhead test. The timing will depend most on when the underground tunnels and modified device technology are ready. A seventh nuclear test would be the first since September 2017 and raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula, increasing dangers of miscalculation and miscommunication between the Kim regime and the incoming Yoon administration.”
“The Kim regime needs more sources of national pride and legitimacy than military parades. So the public commemorations around its founder's birthday tried to portray an economy that is not only resilient but growing, and a society that is not only united but also modern and happy. But this does not represent a shift away from North Korea's military build-up. Kim Jong-un's stated goal of deploying tactical nuclear weapons, Kim Yo-jong's recent threats toward Seoul, and satellite imagery of tunneling activity at Punggye-ri all point to an upcoming nuclear test. Additional missile launches are also expected for honing weapons delivery systems.”
“The international message behind North Korea's month of missile tests is about price. The Kim regime hears external discussions of its domestic weaknesses and sees South Korea's growing strength. So it wants to remind Washington and Seoul that trying to topple it would be too costly. By threatening stability in Asia while global resources are stretched thin elsewhere, Pyongyang is demanding the world compensate it to act like a 'responsible nuclear power'.”
“North Korea is trying to lay a trap for the Biden administration. It has queued up missiles that it wants to test anyway and is responding to US pressure with additional provocations in an effort to extort concessions. North Korea should be offered humanitarian assistance once it is willing to diplomatically reengage. But its threats should not be rewarded with international recognition or sanctions relief.”
“North Korea's so-called hypersonic weapon is not technologically ready for deployment. But state media hyped the latest test, personally supervised by Kim Jong-un, as 'final verification' of a new military capability. This looks like classic North Korean box checking, claiming success of an agenda item from Kim's earlier speech in an attempt to bolster political legitimacy and increase diplomatic pressure. Nonetheless, Pyongyang's ability to threaten its neighbors continues to grow, underlining the urgency of U.S.-South Korea-Japan cooperation on missile defense and the need for greater accountability in China and Russia's enforcement of UN sanctions.”
“North Korea is trying to coerce the world into accepting its violations of UN Security Council Resolutions as if they are normal acts of self-defense. This is part of the Kim regime's efforts to achieve de facto international recognition as a nuclear power and receive concessions just for resuming contact.”