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“Trump has been very clear that Europeans need to ramp up their defence spending even further. He wants a three percent of GDP pledge and we can expect him to push this hard. Europeans have long recognised the need to step up on security and defence, but this realisation has not been matched by resources or true political will. The systemic threat that Russia poses to European security makes this shift extremely urgent if American engagement decreases. The first thing Europe needs to do now is to take the lead in supporting Ukraine towards victory against Russia. Europe will also be up against opposition to autonomy from Trump. He does not want the European defence market to become autonomous, which is a prerequisite for European strategic autonomy. Rather, we saw during the previous Trump administration that he pushed Europeans to buy more American defence material. Neither has he expressed any wish for the Europeans to develop their own nuclear deterrence, another necessary condition for European strategic autonomy.”
11 Nov 2024
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